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My 5-3 Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 18 December 2006, at 10:37 p.m.

In Response To: Moves leading up to today's OLM (Stick)

Snowie 3 ply had the top 2 plays within .008 of each other, rollout confirms my thoughts (for once). I wish I'd have kept the rollouts in the OLM file itself because then I'd be unable to rollout your plays in advance. For our next match I'll figure something out so at the end of the match we have a very precise error rate for both players but this time it will only be 3 ply. [the rollouts have been important for a couple of plays already to distinguish what's best and esp. by how much]


Match to 25, White leads 6 to 2
115
122
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/5 0.272
0.2% 10.9% 57.9% 42.1% 8.7% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.254
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.179 ±0.018, - live cube: 0.254 ±0.036. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 17220 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, seed 1, with race database.
2 R 18/13 18/15 0.201 (-0.071)
0.4% 6.4% 57.2% 42.8% 7.7% 0.2%
Live cube rollout: 0.233
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.132 ±0.017, - live cube: 0.233 ±0.029. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 21724 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, seed 1, with race database.
3 R 8/3 8/5 0.144 (-0.128)
0.4% 11.4% 54.4% 45.6% 10.6% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.168
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.096 ±0.019, - live cube: 0.168 ±0.037. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 18273 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, seed 1, with race database.
4 R 13/8 13/10 0.141 (-0.131)
0.2% 10.1% 54.0% 46.0% 8.0% 0.2%
Live cube rollout: 0.139
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.102 ±0.018, - live cube: 0.139 ±0.033. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 18999 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, seed 1, with race database.

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