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OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Thursday, 30 June 2011, at 3:58 a.m.

In Response To: OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical (Jason Lee)


This neat page of stats may shed some light on the question (also shown below): http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902.html It shows the expected number of runs (over 4 years of MLB stats) for each combination of number of outs and runners on base.

From this basic chart, it is easy to determine the value in number of runs of getting an out or walking a batter in each potential situation. 



 

	Run Expectancy		 

RE 99-02	0 out	1 out	2 out 

Empty---	0.555	0.297	0.117 

1st-----	0.953	0.573	0.251 

2nd-----	1.189	0.725	0.344 

3rd-----	1.482	0.983	0.387 

1st_2nd-	1.573	0.971	0.466 

1st_3rd-	1.904	1.243	0.538 

2nd_3rd-	2.052	1.467	0.634 

Loaded--	2.417	1.650	0.815 

			 

			 

	Walking a batter		 

RE 99-02	0 out	1 out	2 out 

Empty---	0.398	0.276	0.134 

1st-----	0.620	0.398	0.215 

2nd-----	0.384	0.246	0.122 

3rd-----	0.422	0.260	0.151 

1st_2nd-	0.844	0.679	0.349 

1st_3rd-	0.513	0.407	0.277 

2nd_3rd-	0.365	0.183	0.181 

Loaded--	1.000	1.000	1.000 

			 

			 

	Adding an out		 

RE 99-02	0 out	1 out	2 out 

Empty---	0.258	0.180	0.117 

1st-----	0.380	0.322	0.251 

2nd-----	0.464	0.381	0.344 

3rd-----	0.499	0.596	0.387 

1st_2nd-	0.602	0.505	0.466 

1st_3rd-	0.661	0.705	0.538 

2nd_3rd-	0.585	0.833	0.634 

Loaded--	0.767	0.835	0.815





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