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OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 30 June 2011, at 4:29 a.m.

In Response To: OT -- Absurd Baseball Hypothetical (Rich Munitz)

Those values seem to indicate the hypothesised batter is better. Also that table is from 1999 - 2002 data and offense is down slightly since then which widens the gap somewhat.

Early in the game you might wait for a bases loaded situation, or a 1rst and second with a weak hitter up. Late in the game you get good value just by waiting for a leadoff single.

That chart is an overall average and does not take the particular location in a particualr batting order into account. It would be interesting to look at the gain from using the pitcher when the opponent's best hitter is up against the gain from using the batter when a team's weakest hitter is up.

Also how much extra value for the pitcher should be given regarding th substitutions advantage. when putting the pitcher in you could sub out any defensive player you wish but the batter must replace whoever is up in the order.

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