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Comment on Wimbledon Finals

Posted By: misja
Date: Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 11:07 a.m.

In Response To: Comment on Wimbledon Finals (Maik Stiebler)

That doesn't seem to make sense.
Suppose a player hits 100% of his 2nd serves in, and amazingly 99% of those are winners. For some reason his 1st serve goes in only 50% of the time, but those are all winners. Your second formula then becomes:
0.99 * (1 + 0.5 - 1) > 0.5; so 0.495 > 0.5.
Which means it would be best to continue with the bad 1st serve and the good 2nd serve, for a total of 99.5%, instead of choosing for a 99.99% sure point by hitting the 2nd serve first.

Messages In This Thread

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  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 3 July 2011, at 6:31 p.m.
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    Joe Russell -- Sunday, 3 July 2011, at 7:53 p.m.
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        Rich Munitz -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 3:18 p.m.
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    Higonefive -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 5:24 a.m.
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    Michael Depreli -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 11:57 a.m.
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      Bob Koca -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 5:19 p.m.
      • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
        misja -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 7:40 p.m.
        • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
          Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 8:35 p.m.
          • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
            misja -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 11:07 a.m.
            • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
              Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 11:43 a.m.
              • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
                misja -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 12:43 p.m.
      • sports psychology (not OT, IMO)
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 5:32 p.m.
        • sports psychology (not OT, IMO)
          Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 1:51 a.m.
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            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 1:43 p.m.
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          Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 10:21 p.m.
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              Henrik Bukkjaer -- Friday, 8 July 2011, at 3:44 p.m.
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              christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 9 July 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
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      Bob Koca -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 5:36 p.m.
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        Stein Kulseth -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 6:45 p.m.
        • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 1:23 a.m.
  • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
    Bob Koca -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 5:22 p.m.
    • Comment on Wimbledon Finals
      Christian Plenz -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 1:52 a.m.
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    Stick -- Monday, 4 July 2011, at 10:14 p.m.
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    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 5:57 p.m.
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      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 8:06 p.m.
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        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 10:38 p.m.
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      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 8:17 p.m.
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        Jason Lee -- Tuesday, 5 July 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
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          Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 6 July 2011, at 10:10 p.m.
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            Bob Koca -- Thursday, 7 July 2011, at 3:29 a.m.
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                Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 7 July 2011, at 6:11 p.m.
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