Game number 14

The score (after 13 games) is: kit&stick 11, ed&howard 17 (match to 19 points)

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Move number 1: ed&howard to play 51

+-13-14-15-16-17-18-+---+-19-20-21-22-23-24-+

+-12-11-10--9--8--7-+---+--6--5--4--3--2--1-+

Pip counts: kit&stick 167, ed&howard 167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cIlmArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/23 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/23 13/8	-0.2201
			0.5097 0.1388 0.0057 - 0.4903 0.1307 0.0037
	2	2	13/8 6/5	-0.2550 ( -0.0349)
			0.5044 0.1393 0.0057 - 0.4956 0.1364 0.0056
	3	2	24/18	-0.2577 ( -0.0376)
			0.5043 0.1229 0.0058 - 0.4957 0.1378 0.0040
	4	2	13/7	-0.3266 ( -0.1065)
			0.4845 0.1354 0.0061 - 0.5155 0.1428 0.0064

Move number 2: kit&stick to play 63

Pip counts: kit&stick 167, ed&howard 161
Position ID: 4PPgASjgc/ABMA Match ID: MAFvArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves 24/15

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.0893	(Money: -0.0294)
	0.4903 0.1307 0.0037 - 0.5097 0.1388 0.0057
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.2201
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.7799
3.	Double, take	+0.1030	-0.1170
Proper cube action:		No double, take (13.0%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/15	+0.1474
			0.4852 0.1095 0.0032 - 0.5148 0.1495 0.0040
	2	2	24/18 13/10	+0.1234 ( -0.0240)
			0.4751 0.1113 0.0038 - 0.5249 0.1543 0.0049
	3	2	13/4	+0.0956 ( -0.0518)
			0.4588 0.1214 0.0040 - 0.5412 0.1613 0.0085
	4	2	13/10 8/2*	+0.0811 ( -0.0663)
			0.4520 0.1248 0.0044 - 0.5480 0.1698 0.0105

Move number 3: ed&howard to play 63

Pip counts: kit&stick 158, ed&howard 161
Position ID: 4HPwCSDg8+ABKA Match ID: cAlvArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/18 13/10*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	24/18 13/10*	-0.1187
			0.5342 0.1385 0.0051 - 0.4658 0.1170 0.0028
	2	2	13/10*/4	-0.1987 ( -0.0799)
			0.5109 0.1488 0.0055 - 0.4891 0.1239 0.0038
	3	2	13/10* 13/7	-0.2041 ( -0.0854)
			0.5108 0.1545 0.0063 - 0.4892 0.1266 0.0044
	4	2	13/10* 8/2	-0.3051 ( -0.1864)
			0.4872 0.1430 0.0053 - 0.5128 0.1395 0.0052

Move number 4: kit&stick to play 44

Pip counts: kit&stick 168, ed&howard 152
Position ID: 4PPEQRDgc/ABUA Match ID: MAFyArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/21 13/9 6/2*(2)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 13/9 6/2*(2)	+0.4371
			0.5324 0.1801 0.0066 - 0.4676 0.1151 0.0043
	2	2	bar/21 24/20 6/2*(2)	+0.4356 ( -0.0015)
			0.5417 0.1655 0.0061 - 0.4583 0.1090 0.0035
	3	2	bar/21 8/4 6/2*(2)	+0.3205 ( -0.1167)
			0.5014 0.1692 0.0072 - 0.4986 0.1361 0.0064
	4	2	bar/21 13/9(2) 6/2*	+0.2892 ( -0.1480)
			0.5042 0.1461 0.0055 - 0.4958 0.1323 0.0049

Move number 5: ed&howard to play 44

Pip counts: kit&stick 152, ed&howard 154
Position ID: hnPhASLg88RBQA Match ID: cAlyArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/21 18/14 8/4*(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.484)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 18/14 8/4*(2)	+0.1315
			0.6151 0.2067 0.0133 - 0.3849 0.1161 0.0036
	2	2	bar/21 10/6 8/4*(2)	+0.0021 ( -0.1294)
			0.5761 0.1984 0.0118 - 0.4239 0.1256 0.0031
	3	2	bar/21 13/9 8/4*(2)	-0.0454 ( -0.1769)
			0.5690 0.2241 0.0171 - 0.4310 0.1524 0.0080
	4	2	bar/21 18/10 8/4*	-0.1101 ( -0.2416)
			0.5532 0.1519 0.0075 - 0.4468 0.1417 0.0036

Move number 6: kit&stick to play 55

Pip counts: kit&stick 156, ed&howard 138
Position ID: mM/EBQSGc+EBUA Match ID: MIF2ArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/15*/10 9/4*

Alert: very lucky roll! ( +0.747)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/15/10 9/4	+0.6989
			0.6001 0.2660 0.0139 - 0.3999 0.1220 0.0057
	2	2	bar/15* 13/8 9/4*	+0.6362 ( -0.0627)
			0.5718 0.2501 0.0135 - 0.4282 0.1425 0.0067
	3	2	bar/15* 8/3(2)	+0.5385 ( -0.1604)
			0.5562 0.2462 0.0129 - 0.4438 0.1542 0.0095
	4	2	bar/15* 9/4* 8/3	+0.4026 ( -0.2963)
			0.5189 0.2255 0.0130 - 0.4811 0.1858 0.0133

Move number 7: ed&howard to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 136, ed&howard 157
Position ID: JufEAyCYz+ACYA Match ID: cAlqArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/21*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/21*	-0.3719
			0.4895 0.1571 0.0099 - 0.5105 0.1894 0.0075

Move number 8: kit&stick to play 31

Pip counts: kit&stick 157, ed&howard 153
Position ID: mM/gAkKGc+IBUA Match ID: MIFlArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/24 13/10

Cube decision
2-ply cubeless equity		-0.0168	(Money: +0.0508)
	0.5092 0.1944 0.0089 - 0.4908 0.1607 0.0103
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+0.4070
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.5930
3.	Double, take	+0.3861	-0.0209
Proper cube action:		No double, take (3.4%)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 13/10	+0.3086
			0.4940 0.1619 0.0068 - 0.5060 0.1612 0.0088
	2	2	bar/22 24/23	+0.1723 ( -0.1363)
			0.4661 0.1396 0.0057 - 0.5339 0.1816 0.0084
	3	2	bar/22 10/9	+0.1676 ( -0.1410)
			0.4615 0.1446 0.0054 - 0.5385 0.1798 0.0091
	4	2	bar/22 8/7	+0.1296 ( -0.1790)
			0.4505 0.1485 0.0060 - 0.5495 0.2031 0.0146

Move number 9: ed&howard to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 153, ed&howard 153
Position ID: hnPGATCYz+ACQg Match ID: cAlzArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/21 14/8

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.331)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/21 14/8	+0.0561
			0.5673 0.1736 0.0063 - 0.4327 0.0852 0.0019
	2	2	bar/21 13/7	-0.2204 ( -0.2766)
			0.5008 0.1496 0.0059 - 0.4992 0.1171 0.0037
	3	0	bar/21 8/2	-0.3711 ( -0.4272)
			0.4659 0.1401 0.0080 - 0.5341 0.1492 0.0075

Move number 10: kit&stick to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 153, ed&howard 143
Position ID: mM/BAQaGc8YBMA Match ID: MAFqArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves 24/18

Ply

Move

Equity

•

24/18

-0.0920

0.4451	0.0866	0.0031	-	0.5549	0.2433	0.0305	-0.2599	-0.0920
0.0028	0.0025	0.0004	-	0.0028	0.0072	0.0052	0.0087	0.0142

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

643 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1052800745 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

24/20 13/11

-0.0995 ( -0.0074)

0.4348	0.0907	0.0035	-	0.5652	0.2486	0.0342	-0.2674	-0.0995
0.0027	0.0025	0.0010	-	0.0027	0.0075	0.0048	0.0093	0.0145

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

644 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1052800745 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

24/20 8/6

-0.0624 ( +0.0296)

0.4303 0.0901 0.0020 - 0.5697 0.1950 0.0058

24/22 24/20

-0.0633 ( +0.0288)

0.4346 0.0840 0.0019 - 0.5654 0.1949 0.0053

Move number 11: ed&howard to play 66

Pip counts: kit&stick 147, ed&howard 143
Position ID: hnPGQSCYz8EBBg Match ID: cAl7ArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/7*/1*(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.441)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/7/1(2)	+0.5379
			0.6896 0.4122 0.0086 - 0.3104 0.0670 0.0014
	2	2	13/7/1 13/7(2)	+0.3800 ( -0.1579)
			0.6507 0.3170 0.0078 - 0.3493 0.0709 0.0012
	3	2	13/7/1 8/2(2)	+0.3217 ( -0.2162)
			0.6365 0.3583 0.0081 - 0.3635 0.0878 0.0021
	4	2	13/7*(2) 8/2(2)	+0.3076 ( -0.2303)
			0.6316 0.2989 0.0094 - 0.3684 0.0760 0.0016

Move number 12: kit&stick to play 42

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 119
Position ID: Yz4HAQaGc8YBYA Match ID: MAFqArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/23

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/23	-0.4466
			0.3337 0.0774 0.0016 - 0.6663 0.4057 0.0090

Move number 13: ed&howard to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 153, ed&howard 119
Position ID: hnPGAUhjPgcBBg Match ID: cIluArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 8/3 6/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	8/3 6/3	+0.5586
			0.6957 0.4014 0.0096 - 0.3043 0.0632 0.0013
	2	2	21/13	+0.4642 ( -0.0944)
			0.6840 0.2972 0.0096 - 0.3160 0.0714 0.0014
	3	2	21/16 13/10	+0.2693 ( -0.2893)
			0.6331 0.2908 0.0112 - 0.3669 0.0917 0.0028
	4	2	13/5	+0.1983 ( -0.3603)
			0.5965 0.2770 0.0063 - 0.4035 0.0773 0.0013

Move number 14: kit&stick to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 153, ed&howard 111
Position ID: s3kGAQaGc8YBSA Match ID: MIFuArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/20 23/20

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.512)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/20 23/20	+0.0617
			0.4641 0.0870 0.0011 - 0.5359 0.1075 0.0009
	2	0	bar/20 13/10	-0.4756 ( -0.5373)
			0.3259 0.0790 0.0016 - 0.6741 0.4315 0.0106
	3	0	bar/20 8/5	-0.5547 ( -0.6164)
			0.3059 0.0801 0.0015 - 0.6941 0.4941 0.0248
	4	0	bar/20 6/3	-0.5762 ( -0.6379)
			0.3030 0.0756 0.0016 - 0.6970 0.5025 0.0173

Move number 15: ed&howard to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 145, ed&howard 111
Position ID: hnPGAQOzeQYBBg Match ID: cAlmArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/8

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/8	+0.0191
			0.5593 0.1224 0.0010 - 0.4407 0.0827 0.0009
	2	2	6/2 3/2	-0.0591 ( -0.0782)
			0.5296 0.1310 0.0013 - 0.4704 0.0817 0.0010
	3	2	13/9 3/2	-0.1060 ( -0.1251)
			0.5118 0.1244 0.0014 - 0.4882 0.0791 0.0011
	4	2	6/1	-0.1336 ( -0.1527)
			0.5106 0.1052 0.0008 - 0.4894 0.0872 0.0008

Move number 16: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 145, ed&howard 106
Position ID: s3kOAAaGc8YBAw Match ID: MAFzArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves 13/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	13/3	+0.1113
			0.4742 0.1048 0.0013 - 0.5258 0.1232 0.0018
	2	2	20/16 20/14	+0.0706 ( -0.0407)
			0.4857 0.0633 0.0008 - 0.5143 0.1043 0.0008
	3	2	20/10	-0.2004 ( -0.3117)
			0.4023 0.0761 0.0016 - 0.5977 0.2722 0.0027
	4	2	13/7 6/2	-0.2201 ( -0.3315)
			0.3873 0.0707 0.0007 - 0.6127 0.1749 0.0026

Move number 17: ed&howard to play 51

Pip counts: kit&stick 135, ed&howard 106
Position ID: FueMAQOzeQ4ABg Match ID: cIlmArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 21/20 21/16

Annotation

At this score we can double whenever we feel like it, we felt like it.

Move number 18: kit&stick doubles to 2

Pip counts: kit&stick 135, ed&howard 100
Position ID: s3kOEAIW54wBAw Match ID: MBlgArAAiAAA

• ed&howard accepts

Alert: wrong double ( -0.0067)!

Cube decision

Rollout cubeless equity

+0.0158

(Money: -0.0453)

Cubeful equities:

No double

+0.2606

Double, pass

+1.0000

+0.7394

Double, take

+0.2539

-0.0067

Proper cube action:

No double, take (0.9%)

Rollout details

	Win	W g	W bg		Lose	L g	L bg	Cubeless	Cubeful
Centered 1-cube	0.5051	0.1459	0.0039	-	0.4949	0.1860	0.0193	+0.0158	+0.2606
Standard error	0.0013	0.0014	0.0002	-	0.0013	0.0044	0.0025	0.0054	0.0071
Player ed&howard owns 2-cube	0.5077	0.1570	0.0039	-	0.4923	0.2274	0.0195	+0.2539	+0.2539
Standard error	0.0014	0.0017	0.0002	-	0.0014	0.0063	0.0026	0.0081	0.0081

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

1410 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Move number 19: kit&stick to play 51

Pip counts: kit&stick 135, ed&howard 100
Position ID: s3kOEAIW54wBAw Match ID: EYFmArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves 10/9* 8/3

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	10/9* 8/3	+0.2776
			0.5240 0.1709 0.0029 - 0.4760 0.1646 0.0045
	2	2	8/3 6/5*	+0.2508 ( -0.0268)
			0.5153 0.1631 0.0034 - 0.4847 0.1699 0.0043
	3	2	10/9* 10/5*	+0.0944 ( -0.1832)
			0.4542 0.1385 0.0024 - 0.5458 0.2723 0.0109
	4	2	10/5* 6/5	+0.0657 ( -0.2119)
			0.4468 0.1278 0.0024 - 0.5532 0.2110 0.0054

Move number 20: ed&howard to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 129, ed&howard 109
Position ID: Ns6KAQOzeQ4AQQ Match ID: UQlmArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/24 20/16*

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.474)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/24 20/16*	+0.2643
			0.6778 0.2966 0.0061 - 0.3222 0.0667 0.0022
	2	2	bar/20	+0.0751 ( -0.1891)
			0.5771 0.0883 0.0007 - 0.4229 0.0595 0.0005
	3	0	bar/24 8/4	-0.3644 ( -0.6287)
			0.4244 0.1209 0.0016 - 0.5756 0.1552 0.0053
	4	0	bar/24 6/2	-0.4191 ( -0.6834)
			0.4194 0.1247 0.0021 - 0.5806 0.1853 0.0083

Move number 21: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 145, ed&howard 104
Position ID: s3kOECA2zsSAQQ Match ID: EQFzArAAiAAA

• kit&stick cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 22: ed&howard to play 43

Pip counts: kit&stick 145, ed&howard 104
Position ID: Ns7EgEGzeQ4QIA Match ID: UQluArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 24/20 6/3

Annotation

I'm not sure why they played 6/3. They obviously want to get their checkers around as quickly as possible and win the game. Picking up the blot would be nice as it'd give them more time to bring their checkers around the board, it's definitely not a big enough priority to waffle around like this.

Move number 23: kit&stick to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 145, ed&howard 97
Position ID: c3MOEAI2zsSAQQ Match ID: EQFmArAAiAAA

• kit&stick cannot move

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 24: ed&howard to play 21

Pip counts: kit&stick 145, ed&howard 97
Position ID: Ns7EgEFzcw4QAg Match ID: UQllArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 16/15*/13

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	16/15*/13	+0.6080
			0.8198 0.5222 0.0102 - 0.1802 0.0231 0.0007
	2	2	20/18 16/15*	+0.5906 ( -0.0175)
			0.8132 0.5180 0.0101 - 0.1868 0.0262 0.0008
	3	2	16/15* 8/6	+0.5739 ( -0.0341)
			0.8062 0.5213 0.0106 - 0.1938 0.0281 0.0009
	4	2	16/15* 6/4	+0.5503 ( -0.0577)
			0.7974 0.5118 0.0096 - 0.2026 0.0325 0.0010

Move number 25: kit&stick to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 160, ed&howard 94
Position ID: c3MOAgI2zmDAYA Match ID: EYFuArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/20

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	bar/20	-0.5242
			0.2156 0.0337 0.0002 - 0.7844 0.3752 0.0034

Move number 26: ed&howard to play 33

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 94
Position ID: Ns5gwEFzcw4CAg Match ID: UYltArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 13/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	2	13/4 6/3	+0.4928
			0.7635 0.4337 0.0071 - 0.2365 0.0254 0.0005
•	2	2	13/1	+0.4707 ( -0.0221)
			0.7548 0.4185 0.0064 - 0.2452 0.0288 0.0006
	3	0	13/7 4/1(2)	+0.0700 ( -0.4228)
			0.5974 0.2716 0.0036 - 0.4026 0.0919 0.0024
	4	0	13/10 6/3(3)	+0.0659 ( -0.4269)
			0.5876 0.2497 0.0033 - 0.4124 0.0806 0.0019

Move number 27: kit&stick to play 21

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 82
Position ID: 5+YcAAI2zmDAQQ Match ID: EQFlArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/23 6/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/23 6/5*	-0.2619
			0.3300 0.0588 0.0005 - 0.6700 0.4243 0.0106
	2	2	bar/23 13/12	-0.4380 ( -0.1761)
			0.2494 0.0473 0.0006 - 0.7506 0.5240 0.0122
	3	2	bar/23 2/1	-0.5281 ( -0.2662)
			0.2115 0.0369 0.0002 - 0.7885 0.4925 0.0071
	4	2	bar/23 8/7	-0.5529 ( -0.2909)
			0.2024 0.0319 0.0002 - 0.7976 0.6182 0.0172

Move number 28: ed&howard to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 152, ed&howard 87
Position ID: Ns1gwBHn5hwAQA Match ID: UQlzArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/21 8/2*

Ply

Move

Equity

bar/15

+0.3112

0.6891	0.5525	0.0592	-	0.3109	0.0479	0.0023	+0.3112	+0.3112
0.0023	0.0111	0.0067	-	0.0023	0.0018	0.0004	0.0054	0.0054

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

768 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

•

bar/21 8/2*

+0.2821 ( -0.0291)

0.6905	0.5820	0.0383	-	0.3095	0.0714	0.0030	+0.2821	+0.2821
0.0023	0.0096	0.0051	-	0.0023	0.0022	0.0003	0.0060	0.0060

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

767 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Annotation

Again, trying to get around the board should take priority, risking another blot is overkill. Run, duplicate the 3s, hope to get away.

Move number 29: kit&stick to play 11

Pip counts: kit&stick 154, ed&howard 77
Position ID: 180ZAAQ2zWDAQQ Match ID: EYFkArAAiAAA

• kit&stick cannot move

Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.324)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
			Cannot move

Move number 30: ed&howard to play 41

Pip counts: kit&stick 154, ed&howard 77
Position ID: Ns1gwEHXzRkABA Match ID: UQlmArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 21/20* 6/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	21/20* 6/2	+0.7934
			0.9001 0.8175 0.0248 - 0.0999 0.0050 0.0001
	2	2	8/4 3/2	+0.6588 ( -0.1346)
			0.8386 0.6565 0.0146 - 0.1614 0.0136 0.0003
	3	2	21/20*/16	+0.6338 ( -0.1596)
			0.8336 0.6982 0.0233 - 0.1664 0.0243 0.0009
	4	2	6/2 3/2	+0.6287 ( -0.1647)
			0.8247 0.6397 0.0123 - 0.1753 0.0153 0.0003

Move number 31: kit&stick to play 55

Pip counts: kit&stick 174, ed&howard 72
Position ID: t5sZAAI2ZjDgYA Match ID: EYF2ArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/15(2)

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.522)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/15(2)	-0.2006
			0.3696 0.0456 0.0002 - 0.6304 0.3384 0.0032
	2	2	bar/15 bar/20 13/8	-0.4349 ( -0.2343)
			0.2617 0.0316 0.0001 - 0.7383 0.4840 0.0057
	3	2	bar/10 bar/20	-0.4632 ( -0.2627)
			0.2475 0.0316 0.0001 - 0.7525 0.5198 0.0051
	4	0	bar/20(2) 13/8(2)	-0.5821 ( -0.3815)
			0.1966 0.0188 0.0000 - 0.8034 0.4198 0.0019

Move number 32: ed&howard to play 53

Pip counts: kit&stick 154, ed&howard 72
Position ID: NmYwgwO3mxkAAg Match ID: UYluArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 6/3 6/1

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	6/3 6/1	+0.1400
			0.5954 0.3106 0.0020 - 0.4046 0.0384 0.0003
	2	2	20/15 4/1	+0.0920 ( -0.0480)
			0.5847 0.2847 0.0028 - 0.4153 0.0577 0.0009
	3	2	20/15 6/3	-0.0232 ( -0.1632)
			0.5435 0.2457 0.0018 - 0.4565 0.0818 0.0016
	4	2	8/3 4/1	-0.0886 ( -0.2287)
			0.5199 0.2629 0.0023 - 0.4801 0.0954 0.0018

Move number 33: kit&stick to play 64

Pip counts: kit&stick 154, ed&howard 64
Position ID: b28YAAI2ZjCDAw Match ID: EQFzArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves 15/5*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	15/5*	-0.0070
			0.4492 0.0714 0.0004 - 0.5508 0.3264 0.0039
	2	2	15/9 13/9	-0.1112 ( -0.1042)
			0.4043 0.0604 0.0005 - 0.5957 0.3336 0.0029
	3	2	20/16 20/14	-0.1310 ( -0.1240)
			0.3979 0.0552 0.0004 - 0.6021 0.3739 0.0070
	4	2	20/10	-0.1529 ( -0.1459)
			0.3877 0.0540 0.0004 - 0.6123 0.3561 0.0028

Move number 34: ed&howard to play 51

Pip counts: kit&stick 144, ed&howard 69
Position ID: Ns1gggNvbxgAQA Match ID: UYlmArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves bar/20* 3/2

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/20* 3/2	+0.3424
			0.6916 0.5062 0.0057 - 0.3084 0.0307 0.0003
	2	2	bar/20* 8/7	+0.1956 ( -0.1468)
			0.6411 0.4576 0.0061 - 0.3589 0.0641 0.0014
	3	0	bar/20* 4/3	+0.0311 ( -0.3112)
			0.5702 0.3482 0.0036 - 0.4298 0.0818 0.0011
	4	0	bar/20* 2/1	-0.0018 ( -0.3441)
			0.5550 0.3387 0.0044 - 0.4450 0.0828 0.0017

Move number 35: kit&stick to play 63

Pip counts: kit&stick 164, ed&howard 63
Position ID: 724YAAI2ZjDBQQ Match ID: EQFvArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/16

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	2	bar/16	-0.0020
			0.4466 0.0792 0.0005 - 0.5534 0.3641 0.0032
	2	2	bar/19 8/5*	-0.1328 ( -0.1308)
			0.3877 0.0691 0.0006 - 0.6123 0.4569 0.0112
	3	2	bar/19 15/12	-0.1539 ( -0.1519)
			0.3868 0.0547 0.0003 - 0.6132 0.4229 0.0038
	4	2	bar/19 13/10	-0.3556 ( -0.3536)
			0.2925 0.0447 0.0004 - 0.7075 0.5696 0.0138

Move number 36: ed&howard to play 65

Pip counts: kit&stick 155, ed&howard 63
Position ID: NmYwhQPvbhgAAg Match ID: UQl3ArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 20/9*

Alert: lucky roll! ( +0.475)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	20/9*	+0.6256
			0.8185 0.6941 0.0054 - 0.1815 0.0087 0.0000
	2	0	8/3 8/2	+0.2394 ( -0.3862)
			0.6302 0.3692 0.0026 - 0.3698 0.0160 0.0000
	3	0	20/14 8/3	-0.1298 ( -0.7554)
			0.4855 0.2402 0.0019 - 0.5145 0.0758 0.0007
	4	0	20/15 8/2	-0.1429 ( -0.7685)
			0.4796 0.2339 0.0017 - 0.5204 0.0770 0.0005

Move number 37: kit&stick to play 66

Pip counts: kit&stick 164, ed&howard 52
Position ID: 725YAAA2ZjDBQQ Match ID: EQF7ArAAiAAA

• kit&stick moves bar/19 20/14 13/7(2)

Ply

Move

Equity

bar/19 15/9 13/7(2)

-0.5691

0.2046	0.0160	0.0004	-	0.7954	0.6974	0.0080	-0.5691	-0.5691
0.0020	0.0014	0.0002	-	0.0020	0.0142	0.0029	0.0048	0.0048

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

490 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

•

bar/19 20/14 13/7(2)

-0.5921 ( -0.0230)

0.1964	0.0113	0.0002	-	0.8036	0.7288	0.0039	-0.5921	-0.5921
0.0021	0.0009	0.0001	-	0.0021	0.0152	0.0018	0.0044	0.0044

Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.

489 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 1053754233 and quasi-random dice

Play: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 12 more moves within equity 0.16

Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.

Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

bar/19 20/14 15/9 13/7

-0.6134 ( -0.0443)

0.1829 0.0158 0.0000 - 0.8171 0.5770 0.0015

bar/19 20/8 13/7

-0.6219 ( -0.0528)

0.1790 0.0153 0.0000 - 0.8210 0.5784 0.0014

Annotation

Technically innacurate, the builder for the four and five points is more important than outfield control. At this point we were, at least I was, annoyed with the match and resorted to pushing checkers around the board waiting to lose because it had that inevitable feel.

Move number 38: ed&howard to play 66

Pip counts: kit&stick 140, ed&howard 52
Position ID: NraBQgPvblgAAA Match ID: UQl7ArAAiAAA

• ed&howard moves 9/3 8/2(2) 4/off

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	0	9/3 8/2(2) 4/off	+0.9999
			0.9999 0.9547 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000

Annotation

Oh surprise

ed&howard wins 2 points

Game statistics for game 14
Player	kit&stick	ed&howard
Checker play statistics
Total moves	18	19
Unforced moves	13	17
Unmarked moves	0	0
Moves marked good	18	18
Moves marked doubtful	0	0
Moves marked bad	0	1
Moves marked very bad	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.023 ( -0.228%)	-0.177 ( -1.617%)
Error rate (per move)	-1.77 ( -0.018%)	-10.41 ( -0.095%)
Chequerplay rating	Supernatural	Advanced
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	1	0
Rolls marked lucky	2	5
Rolls unmarked	14	14
Rolls marked unlucky	1	0
Rolls marked very unlucky	0	0
Luck rate (total)	+1.233 ( +5.769%)	+2.855 (+20.291%)
Luck rate (per move)	+68.48 ( +0.320%)	+150.24 ( +1.068%)
Luck rating	Go to Las Vegas immediately	Go to Las Vegas immediately
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	9	9
Close or actual cube decisions	3	1
Doubles	1	0
Takes	0	1
Passes	0	0
Missed doubles (below CP)	0	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	0	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	1 (-0.007 ( -0.031%))	0
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	0
Wrong passes	0	0
Error rate (total)	-0.007 ( -0.031%)	+0.000
Error rate (per cube decision)	-2.23 ( -0.010%)	+0.00
Cube decision rating	World class	Supernatural
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-0.030 ( -0.258%)	-0.177 ( -1.617%)
Error rate (per decision)	-1.86 ( -0.016%)	-9.84 ( -0.090%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-0.80	-4.79
Overall rating	Supernatural	Advanced
Actual result	-12.25%	+12.25%
Luck adjusted result	+2.27%	-2.27%

Match statistics
Player	kit&stick	ed&howard
Checker play statistics
Total moves	274	274
Unforced moves	222	217
Unmarked moves	0	0
Moves marked good	263	261
Moves marked doubtful	4	6
Moves marked bad	3	6
Moves marked very bad	4	1
Error rate (total)	-1.709 (-13.559%)	-1.545 (-10.867%)
Error rate (per move)	-7.70 ( -0.061%)	-7.12 ( -0.050%)
Chequerplay rating	Expert	Expert
Luck statistics
Rolls marked very lucky	3	4
Rolls marked lucky	9	20
Rolls unmarked	247	237
Rolls marked unlucky	14	9
Rolls marked very unlucky	1	4
Luck rate (total)	-1.542 (-20.118%)	+1.019 (+18.590%)
Luck rate (per move)	-5.63 ( -0.073%)	+3.72 ( +0.068%)
Luck rating	None	None
Cube statistics
Total cube decisions	197	195
Close or actual cube decisions	37	37
Doubles	9	9
Takes	5	5
Passes	4	4
Missed doubles (below CP)	2 (-0.023 ( -0.083%))	0
Missed doubles (above CP)	1 (-0.116 ( -0.469%))	0
Wrong doubles (below DP)	3 (-0.116 ( -0.867%))	2 (-0.250 ( -1.001%))
Wrong doubles (above TG)	0	0
Wrong takes	0	1 (-0.160 ( -0.649%))
Wrong passes	2 (-0.310 ( -4.623%))	1 (-0.115 ( -0.425%))
Error rate (total)	-0.565 ( -6.041%)	-0.525 ( -2.074%)
Error rate (per cube decision)	-15.27 ( -0.163%)	-14.19 ( -0.056%)
Cube decision rating	Intermediate	Intermediate
Overall statistics
Error rate (total)	-2.274 (-19.600%)	-2.070 (-12.942%)
Error rate (per decision)	-8.78 ( -0.076%)	-8.15 ( -0.051%)
Equiv. Snowie error rate	-4.15	-3.78
Overall rating	Advanced	Advanced
Actual result	-50.00%	+50.00%
Luck adjusted result	-11.29%	+11.29%
Luck based FIBS rating diff.	-2100.00
Error based abs. FIBS rating	1959.2	1965.9
Chequerplay errors rating loss	78.1	72.2
Cube errors rating loss	12.8	11.9

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