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Warning: Mind-altering variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 2:48 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: I made the 3rd best move (Petter Bengtsson)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 172 Unlimited Game Beaver pip: 146 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCBBA-b-a--abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:2:0:10
White owns 14pt intead of 13pt [R E43 Y120 r162] "<=5

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 24/21 8/2*	eq: -0.022
	Player: Opponent: 46.30% (G:22.80% B:3.65%) 53.70% (G:16.61% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.035...-0.010) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2)	eq: -0.065 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 44.91% (G:22.63% B:3.51%) 55.09% (G:14.24% B:0.63%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.078...-0.052) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
3.	Rollout2	Bar/22 9/3 6/3	eq: -0.142 (-0.120)
	Player: Opponent: 44.61% (G:19.53% B:2.30%) 55.39% (G:15.01% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.153...-0.131) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
4.	Rollout2	Bar/22 24/21 9/3	eq: -0.185 (-0.162)
	Player: Opponent: 44.08% (G:18.35% B:2.21%) 55.92% (G:16.93% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.195...-0.174) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 hours 22 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62568138 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44860624 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 166 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 146 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCBBA---ab-abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
White owns 11pt intead of 13pt [R Y41 r81 E189] "<=5

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 24/21 8/2*	eq: +0.187
	Player: Opponent: 50.80% (G:24.07% B:3.60%) 49.20% (G:15.59% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.178...+0.196) - [100.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 56 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 9/3 6/3	eq: +0.146 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 51.67% (G:22.65% B:2.49%) 48.33% (G:12.94% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.137...+0.155) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 28 seconds
3.	Rollout1	Bar/22 24/21 9/3	eq: +0.106 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 51.58% (G:20.87% B:2.21%) 48.42% (G:14.83% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.096...+0.116) - [0.0%] Duration: 34 minutes 49 seconds
4.	Rollout1	Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2)	eq: -0.002 (-0.189)
	Player: Opponent: 46.24% (G:22.33% B:3.54%) 53.76% (G:13.99% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.014...+0.009) - [0.0%] Duration: 41 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62568138 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

In the first (left-hand) position, White's 13pt is nudged back to her 14pt. Now Blue's six-prime play is a whopper (–.120), instead of being the best play.

If White's 14pt is nudged back another pip to her 15pt (not shown), Blue's six-prime play is a double-whopper.

In the second (right-hand) position, White's 13pt is moved in the other direction, forward to the 11pt, yet Blue's six-prime play is again dethroned.

For convenience of comparison, Petter's (money) rollout of the original position is shown below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 170 Unlimited Game pip: 146 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCBBA--ba--abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10
Original Position.. (White owns 13pt) [Y R21 E50 r103] "<=20*10

1.	Rollout1	Bar/22 9/3 6/3	eq: -0,064
	Player: Opponent: 46,52% (G:20,39% B:2,25%) 53,48% (G:14,58% B:0,62%) Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,069...-0,058) - [100,0%] Duration: 34 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/22 24/21 8/2*	eq: -0,085 (-0,021)
	Player: Opponent: 44,79% (G:21,97% B:3,43%) 55,21% (G:17,38% B:0,80%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,091...-0,078) - [0,0%] Duration: 41 minutes 20 seconds
3.	Rollout2	Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2)	eq: -0,114 (-0,050)
	Player: Opponent: 43,80% (G:22,35% B:3,55%) 56,20% (G:14,66% B:0,63%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (-0,122...-0,105) - [0,0%] Duration: 20 minutes 12 seconds
4.	Rollout2	Bar/22 24/21 9/3	eq: -0,166 (-0,103)
	Player: Opponent: 44,59% (G:18,44% B:1,99%) 55,41% (G:16,83% B:0,71%) Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,174...-0,159) - [0,0%] Duration: 20 minutes 53 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13579 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13579 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• I made the 3rd best move
  phil simborg -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 12:22 a.m.
  • I made the 3rd best move
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 12:45 a.m.
    • A vaguely similar decision that I faced recently...
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 2:19 p.m.
  • I made the 3rd best move
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 12:58 a.m.
  • I made the 3rd best move
    Robert Chow -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 1:39 a.m.
    • I made the 3rd best move
      Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 2:27 a.m.
      • I made the 3rd best move
        Robert Chow -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 3:09 a.m.
  • I made the 3rd best move
    David Presser -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 5:01 p.m.
    • I made the 3rd best move
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 5:49 p.m.
      • I made the 3rd best move
        Keene -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 6:48 p.m.
        • I made the 3rd best move
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 7:35 p.m.
          • I made the 3rd best move
            David Presser -- Monday, 9 June 2014, at 11:01 p.m.
  • Rollout: I made the 3rd best move
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 22 June 2014, at 10:00 p.m.
    • Rollout: I made the 3rd best move
      Petter Bengtsson -- Monday, 23 June 2014, at 6:38 p.m.
      • Rollout: I made the 3rd best move
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 12:54 a.m.
        • Rollout: I made the 3rd best move
          Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 11:26 a.m.
      • Warning: Mind-altering variants
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 2:48 p.m.
        • Warning: Mind-altering variants
          Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 25 June 2014, at 3:23 a.m.