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Warning: Mind-altering variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 3:48 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout: I made the 3rd best move (Petter Bengtsson)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 172
Unlimited Game
Beaver
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCBBA-b-a--abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:2:0:10

White owns 14pt intead of 13pt
[R E43 Y120 r162] "<=5


1.Rollout1Bar/22 24/21 8/2* eq: -0.022
Player:
Opponent:
46.30% (G:22.80% B:3.65%)
53.70% (G:16.61% B:0.77%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.035...-0.010) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) eq: -0.065 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:
44.91% (G:22.63% B:3.51%)
55.09% (G:14.24% B:0.63%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.078...-0.052) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes
3.Rollout2Bar/22 9/3 6/3eq: -0.142 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:
44.61% (G:19.53% B:2.30%)
55.39% (G:15.01% B:0.64%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.153...-0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/22 24/21 9/3eq: -0.185 (-0.162)
Player:
Opponent:
44.08% (G:18.35% B:2.21%)
55.92% (G:16.93% B:0.71%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.195...-0.174) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 22 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62568138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44860624
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCBBA---ab-abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10

White owns 11pt intead of 13pt
[R Y41 r81 E189] "<=5


1.Rollout1Bar/22 24/21 8/2* eq: +0.187
Player:
Opponent:
50.80% (G:24.07% B:3.60%)
49.20% (G:15.59% B:0.77%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.178...+0.196) - [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 9/3 6/3eq: +0.146 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
51.67% (G:22.65% B:2.49%)
48.33% (G:12.94% B:0.57%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.137...+0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/22 24/21 9/3eq: +0.106 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:
51.58% (G:20.87% B:2.21%)
48.42% (G:14.83% B:0.68%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.096...+0.116) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 49 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) eq: -0.002 (-0.189)
Player:
Opponent:
46.24% (G:22.33% B:3.54%)
53.76% (G:13.99% B:0.61%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.014...+0.009) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62568138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
In the first (left-hand) position, White's 13pt is nudged back to her 14pt. Now Blue's six-prime play is a whopper (.120), instead of being the best play.

If White's 14pt is nudged back another pip to her 15pt (not shown), Blue's six-prime play is a double-whopper.

In the second (right-hand) position, White's 13pt is moved in the other direction, forward to the 11pt, yet Blue's six-prime play is again dethroned.

For convenience of comparison, Petter's (money) rollout of the original position is shown below.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 170
Unlimited Game
pip: 146
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ba-BBCBBA--ba--abbbb-A-AA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10

Original Position.. (White owns 13pt)
[Y R21 E50 r103] "<=20*10


1.Rollout1Bar/22 9/3 6/3eq: -0,064
Player:
Opponent:
46,52% (G:20,39% B:2,25%)
53,48% (G:14,58% B:0,62%)
Conf.: 0,005 (-0,069...-0,058) - [100,0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 48 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 24/21 8/2* eq: -0,085 (-0,021)
Player:
Opponent:
44,79% (G:21,97% B:3,43%)
55,21% (G:17,38% B:0,80%)
Conf.: 0,007 (-0,091...-0,078) - [0,0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout2Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) eq: -0,114 (-0,050)
Player:
Opponent:
43,80% (G:22,35% B:3,55%)
56,20% (G:14,66% B:0,63%)
Conf.: 0,009 (-0,122...-0,105) - [0,0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 12 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/22 24/21 9/3eq: -0,166 (-0,103)
Player:
Opponent:
44,59% (G:18,44% B:1,99%)
55,41% (G:16,83% B:0,71%)
Conf.: 0,008 (-0,174...-0,159) - [0,0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 53 seconds
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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