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Warning: Mindaltering variants
Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 24 June 2014, at 3:48 p.m.
In Response To: Rollout: I made the 3rd best move (Petter Bengtsson)
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 172Unlimited Game
Beaverpip: 146
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=baBBCBBAbaabbbbAAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:2:0:10 White owns 14pt intead of 13pt
[R E43 Y120 r162] "<=5
1. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 24/21 8/2* eq: 0.022
Player:
Opponent:46.30% (G:22.80% B:3.65%)
53.70% (G:16.61% B:0.77%)Conf.: ± 0.013 (0.035...0.010)  [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 35 minutes2. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) eq: 0.065 (0.043)
Player:
Opponent:44.91% (G:22.63% B:3.51%)
55.09% (G:14.24% B:0.63%)Conf.: ± 0.013 (0.078...0.052)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 37 minutes3. Rollout^{2} Bar/22 9/3 6/3 eq: 0.142 (0.120)
Player:
Opponent:44.61% (G:19.53% B:2.30%)
55.39% (G:15.01% B:0.64%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.153...0.131)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes4. Rollout^{2} Bar/22 24/21 9/3 eq: 0.185 (0.162)
Player:
Opponent:44.08% (G:18.35% B:2.21%)
55.92% (G:16.93% B:0.71%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.195...0.174)  [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 22 minutes^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62568138
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44860624
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerIn the first (lefthand) position, White's 13pt is nudged back to her 14pt. Now Blue's sixprime play is a whopper (–.120), instead of being the best play.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 166Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 146
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=baBBCBBAababbbbAAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:3:0:10 White owns 11pt intead of 13pt
[R Y41 r81 E189] "<=5
1. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 24/21 8/2* eq: +0.187
Player:
Opponent:50.80% (G:24.07% B:3.60%)
49.20% (G:15.59% B:0.77%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.178...+0.196)  [100.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 56 seconds2. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 9/3 6/3 eq: +0.146 (0.041)
Player:
Opponent:51.67% (G:22.65% B:2.49%)
48.33% (G:12.94% B:0.57%)Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.137...+0.155)  [0.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 28 seconds3. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 24/21 9/3 eq: +0.106 (0.081)
Player:
Opponent:51.58% (G:20.87% B:2.21%)
48.42% (G:14.83% B:0.68%)Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.096...+0.116)  [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 49 seconds4. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) eq: 0.002 (0.189)
Player:
Opponent:46.24% (G:22.33% B:3.54%)
53.76% (G:13.99% B:0.61%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.014...+0.009)  [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 46 seconds^{1} 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 62568138
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerIf White's 14pt is nudged back another pip to her 15pt (not shown), Blue's sixprime play is a doublewhopper.
In the second (righthand) position, White's 13pt is moved in the other direction, forward to the 11pt, yet Blue's sixprime play is again dethroned.
For convenience of comparison, Petter's (money) rollout of the original position is shown below.
Nack
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 170Unlimited Game pip: 146
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=baBBCBBAbaabbbbAAA:0:0:1:33:0:0:0:0:10 Original Position.. (White owns 13pt)
[Y R21 E50 r103] "<=20*10
1. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 9/3 6/3 eq: 0,064
Player:
Opponent:46,52% (G:20,39% B:2,25%)
53,48% (G:14,58% B:0,62%)Conf.: ± 0,005 (0,069...0,058)  [100,0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 48 seconds2. Rollout^{1} Bar/22 24/21 8/2* eq: 0,085 (0,021)
Player:
Opponent:44,79% (G:21,97% B:3,43%)
55,21% (G:17,38% B:0,80%)Conf.: ± 0,007 (0,091...0,078)  [0,0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 20 seconds3. Rollout^{2} Bar/22 24/21 5/2*(2) eq: 0,114 (0,050)
Player:
Opponent:43,80% (G:22,35% B:3,55%)
56,20% (G:14,66% B:0,63%)Conf.: ± 0,009 (0,122...0,105)  [0,0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 12 seconds4. Rollout^{2} Bar/22 24/21 9/3 eq: 0,166 (0,103)
Player:
Opponent:44,59% (G:18,44% B:1,99%)
55,41% (G:16,83% B:0,71%)Conf.: ± 0,008 (0,174...0,159)  [0,0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 53 seconds^{1} 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
^{2} 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13579
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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