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A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck

Posted By: Phil Simborg
Date: Tuesday, 27 January 2015, at 2:10 a.m.

In Response To: A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck (Timothy Chow)

Tim, thanks for the explanation. It seems to me that if players with lower PR truly do have a higher luck factor according to the bots, then isn't it possible that your experiment may not prove that better players roll better, but that the bots don't properly compute the luck factor?

It just doesn't seem logical to me that one player's luck can be better than another in the long run. Every single roll, no matter what the position, and no matter who is on roll (the better player or worse player), and no matter how well or poorly he played the previous roll, has 36 possible rolls, and given the position and the equity attributed to each roll, there will always be a number that is the average, half the rolls will be above average and half will be below, and each roller will be equally above and below, on average, over time, the same.

If positions with stronger winning chances have more rolls that are above average, then that means the bot is not setting the average properly.

This whole thing doesn't compute for me...which is not to say you or anyone else is wrong...it just means I can't understand how the premise of better players getting luckier can logically be correct.

Now, as to the possibility that one player gets easier decisions, that is luck, but not one that is measured by the bots and I don't believe it is one that can be measured (currently) with any reasonable accuracy by the bots or humans.

Yes, I can set up a position and name a few rolls that any player will get right, and then a few that most will struggle with, but the fact that the better player will have fewer rolls to struggle with is a function of his skill, not of luck. There is no question that if you have two even players, this can be a major factor, but this is NOT the kind of luck we are talking about in this thread. (I can play two 9 point matches on XG, back to back, and have a pretty sizable difference in PR, and the main reason is who difficult the rolls and cube decisions happened to be in each match.)

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