| |
BGonline.org Forums
SMITH and JONES: The amazing "FARE" position
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: SMITH and JONES: The amazing "FARE" position (Tom Keith)
Date: Friday, 10 March 2017, at 2:04 a.m.
I attributed the creation of the position (that I rolled out both sides of here) to Bob Floyd, as seemingly implied in this 1997 article. You think that Bill Kennedy had something to do with it, yes? Just curious.
I prefaced my posting of the rollouts (see the first of the two links above) with "FWIW" (for what it's worth), because I'm not sure we can trust those two rollout results... in fact, I doubt it.
First of all, I see no reason to believe that Blue has a meaningfully stronger position than White. Each player has the same advantage of being able to hit with 61 63 64 and 65 (and there are even an equal number of inner- and outer-board hits). If anything, it is White who has the possible miniscule advantage that she can safety all but one blot with 62 if she chooses to do so, Blue cannot. By itself, that's enough evidence for me that the cube action should be the same for both players.
Secondly, Brian Sheppard hand-calculated both sides to be a redouble/take (see the second link above, third post), with none of the decisions being particularly close. Brian's assumptions look reasonable to me.
What about XG's rollout results? (The pair I posted.) Well, keep in mind that the player who redoubles from 2 to 4 has an unfair advantage, because of XG's cube cap. If the cube bounces back and forth, then that same player will redouble from 512 to 1024 (which is XG's cap). That may happen only one time in 192 (or whatever it is, that was my hasty calculation), but the inability of the 1024 owner to redouble to 2048 will have a crippling effect on his equity, which could explain why XG's rollout conclusion is that he should pass the very first redouble.
If that's the case, one would think that XG's rollout would also have Blue's side passing in the parallel rollout. However, perhaps XG is doing something systematically wrong (which is proportionately magnified at the higher cube levels) once it initially pegs Blue's on-roll equity to be substantially better than White's on-roll equity (which you can verify if you look at the ++ evaluations).
There's also the matter of the extremely high confidence intervals, although one wouldn't expect a 1.268 pass result to be overturned by +/- 0.183. An extension of the rollouts seems therefore unlikely to alter XG's bottom line in the rollout, though my offer stands to e-mail the files to anyone interested.
Nack
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.