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This rollout still leaves me with questions

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 7:41 p.m.

In Response To: 22 to play in poor ace-point game (David Levy)

Congratulations to Jim for solving this one (and congratulations for his good result in Las Vegas). This rollout, even with Jim's lucid explanation, still leaves me puzzled:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 82 7 point match Crawford pip: 117 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBB--BaBABa-------bbdbcB-:0:0:1:22:6:0:1:7:10
Blue to play 22

1.	Rollout1	9/7* 7/5 6/4(2)	eq: -0.469
	Player: Opponent: 28.82% (G:4.23% B:0.05%) 71.18% (G:27.29% B:1.32%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.475...-0.464) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/6 9/7* 7/5	eq: -0.481 (-0.012)
	Player: Opponent: 28.94% (G:2.92% B:0.01%) 71.06% (G:32.07% B:2.00%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.485...-0.477) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds
3.	Rollout2	9/7* 8/4 7/5	eq: -0.510 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 28.70% (G:3.02% B:0.03%) 71.30% (G:39.39% B:3.25%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.516...-0.505) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
4.	Rollout2	9/7* 8/6 8/4	eq: -0.516 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 27.10% (G:2.48% B:0.03%) 72.90% (G:31.62% B:1.86%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.522...-0.510) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 08 seconds
5.	Rollout2	10/4 9/7*	eq: -0.516 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 27.87% (G:3.01% B:0.03%) 72.13% (G:35.02% B:2.76%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.520...-0.511) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 15 seconds
6.	Rollout2	9/7* 8/6(2) 7/5	eq: -0.521 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 26.09% (G:2.94% B:0.03%) 73.91% (G:27.08% B:1.12%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.526...-0.516) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 58 seconds
7.	Rollout3	9/7* 8/4 6/4	eq: -0.524 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 27.65% (G:2.74% B:0.04%) 72.35% (G:37.12% B:2.91%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.530...-0.519) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 00 second
8.	Rollout3	10/8 10/6 9/7*	eq: -0.540 (-0.071)
	Player: Opponent: 24.72% (G:2.88% B:0.07%) 75.28% (G:22.45% B:0.85%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.544...-0.536) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 33 seconds
1 396 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. First 8 moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Gigantic 2 358 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. First 8 moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Gigantic 3 393 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. First 8 moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Remaining moves and cube decisions: 4-ply Search interval: Gigantic

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Jim notes that "White doesn’t want to get hit." That thought led me to the eighth (!) best play 9/7* 10/8 10/6, leaving 4 shots. Note that the top three plays all slot the five point. Note that the third best play slots BOTH the 5 and 4 points! I'm missing something--the extra shots don't seem to be worth it.

Messages In This Thread

• 22 to play in poor ace-point game
  David Levy -- Saturday, 10 November 2018, at 4:56 p.m.
  • A interesting problem, yes, but certainly not a poor ace-point game at DMP
    Jim Stutz -- Saturday, 10 November 2018, at 10:58 p.m.
    • A interesting problem, yes, but certainly not a poor ace-point game at DMP
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 12:28 a.m.
    • A poor ace-point game?
      David Levy -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 7:59 p.m.
  • 22 to play in poor ace-point game
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 3:07 p.m.
  • 22 to play in poor ace-point game
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 3:14 p.m.
  • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 5:50 p.m.
    • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 7:02 p.m.
    • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
      David Levy -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 7:44 p.m.
      • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 8:01 p.m.
        • Help: 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
          David Levy -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 10:01 p.m.
          • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different) -- Rollouts and explanation
            Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 15 November 2018, at 12:34 a.m.
  • This rollout still leaves me with questions
    David Levy -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 7:41 p.m.
    • This rollout still leaves me with questions
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 8:53 p.m.
    • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
      Jim Stutz -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 7:47 a.m.
      • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
        ah_clem -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 2:50 p.m.
      • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
        Albert Steg -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 5:20 p.m.
      • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
        Fatboy -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 5:38 p.m.