[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

BPC Sunday Bi Monthly vs Carter

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 5 June 2007, at 12:13 a.m.

In Response To: BPC Sunday Bi Monthly vs Carter (neilkaz)

For starters one needs to consider the matchscore situation. I'm still using W-H most of the time since I haven't gotten around to mesmorizing G11. Risk 13 out of 52 (25%) with no recube vig, 19% with perfect cube efficiency. That means a takepoint in the 20.5-21% range for Cotter. This is (only) slightly deeper than $-play -- call it one pip.

Now I show my rust (if I haven't already). Using EPC and figuring Blue rolls a five before a six just under half the time (5-5 isn't a five), I'm calling Blue's EPC halfway between 7 rolls (50) and 8 rolls (57) or 53. How much wastage for Simborg's nemesis? If five pips I think it's a borderline $ take so that means if six pips it's a borderline take at this score. Six pips seems about right (if I rememeber my EPC adjustments) so clear Redouble and borderline T/P.

How about Ward? 37 + 4 (two too many on acepoint) + 1 (one too many on deucepoint) is 42 for Blue. 52 - 6 (three more checkers off) + 1 (one more open point than opp) = 47, so 42 vs. 47.

Kleinman says D/sqrt(S) = (47 - 42 + 4) /sqrt(47 + 42 - 4) = 9/sqrt(95) = 9/9.75 = 36/39 = 12/13. Now 0.5 + (12/13)*0.27 = 75% cgwc for Blue. (A clear Take.)

So which is right (if either)? I'll grab the middle ground and call it D+T.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.