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A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck

Posted By: sita
Date: Wednesday, 28 January 2015, at 10:11 a.m.

In Response To: A made-up game to illustrate some points about skill and luck (Timothy Chow)

if by "luckier" we mean having more total luck in a game

I find this phrasing missleading. Good players do not have more total luck in a game. To illustrate this, I would offer you this bet: We generate a series of games between a good, and a bad player. Say two different configurations of XG. We measure the luck of the players in MWC. Let's call the luckier player the one with a postive value, and call this value MWC_Luck. If the good player is ahead in luck, I pay you $8*MWC_Luck. If the bad player is ahead in luck, you pay me $10*MWC_Luck. If the series of games is long enough, I would expect me to win money, no matter how bad the less skillful player is.

Thus, I would phrase it this way: In more than half of the games the good player has more total luck.

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