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Rollout: The easiest contact bearoff play ever?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 8 June 2010, at 12:29 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout: The easiest contact bearoff play ever? (Timothy Chow)

You are looking ahead to the 3 & 2 point bearoff after you clear the four point. Try different configurations and see which ones are optimal for each total # of checkers left. Once you are down to these two points facing the ace point, you have zero move choices left - everything is forced. You have to plan ahead when you still have three or more points left and you have choices on aces and deuces.

In particular, when you are down to the 3 & 2 points, you want to bearoff as many checkers as you can before you leave a shot. That gives you extra chances to win even if you are hit. This requires extra checkers on the three since everything except deuces will be played from there. A configuration such as five on the deuce and two on the three point is your most likely way to lose this ending because shots come earlier. In Neil's position, we avoid tempting fate by not putting five of them there when we have a choice. Rollouts show us that this trumps the extra risk clearing the four point.

Having two checkers on the deuce will leave immediate shots when you roll a two, so that usually isn't optimal either.

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