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Rollout: Do you have the guts to hit?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 3:23 p.m.

In Response To: Do you have the guts to hit? (Mislav Kovacic)

The rollout puts the hit on top. As I said before, I wouldn't have hit here, but if we give the opponent a significant race lead without increasing his attacking potential too much then I would probably hit.

I've also constructed a possible position that Yellow may have faced on the previous roll, to illustrate that creating a blotty board isn't necessarily a blunder.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 112 7 point match pip: 110 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-ABAABBB-B-aba---bbc-bBb--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:7:10
to play 65

1.	Rollout1	22/11*	eq: -0.445
	Player: Opponent: 40.33% (G:16.38% B:0.82%) 59.67% (G:30.77% B:3.80%) Conf: ± 0.017 (-0.462...-0.428) Duration: 2 hours 14 minutes
2.	Rollout1	9/4 9/3	eq: -0.505 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 36.75% (G:3.72% B:0.05%) 63.25% (G:5.02% B:0.16%) Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.513...-0.497) Duration: 1 hour 26 minutes
1 3000 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

---

Here's a candidate for the position on the previous roll.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 122 7 point match pip: 117 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-AB--BBD-B-bbb----bc-bBb--:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:7:10
to play 43

1.	XG Roller+	7/4 7/3	eq: -0.381
	Player: Opponent: 39.69% (G:4.75% B:0.06%) 60.31% (G:5.04% B:0.19%)
2.	XG Roller+	9/5 7/4	eq: -0.385 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 39.36% (G:5.65% B:0.11%) 60.64% (G:7.02% B:0.48%)
3.	XG Roller+	9/6 9/5	eq: -0.396 (-0.015)
	Player: Opponent: 38.79% (G:5.09% B:0.09%) 61.21% (G:6.32% B:0.21%)
4.	XG Roller+	9/6 7/3	eq: -0.397 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 39.04% (G:5.24% B:0.10%) 60.96% (G:7.13% B:0.48%)
5.	XG Roller+	7/3 6/3	eq: -0.401 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 38.63% (G:4.76% B:0.07%) 61.37% (G:6.36% B:0.30%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Do you have the guts to hit?
  Mislav Kovacic -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 4:36 a.m.
  • Do you have the guts to hit?
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 10:37 a.m.
    • Do you have the guts to hit?
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 12:48 p.m.
      • Do you have the guts to hit?
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 7:59 p.m.
  • Do you have the guts to hit?
    mamabear -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 10:18 p.m.
    • Do you have the guts to hit?
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 11:23 p.m.
  • Rollout: Do you have the guts to hit?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 4 January 2011, at 3:23 p.m.
  • Mislav Kovacic's problem revisited
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 14 May 2014, at 2:24 p.m.