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Do you have the guts to hit?

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Saturday, 1 January 2011, at 10:18 p.m.

In Response To: Do you have the guts to hit? (Mislav Kovacic)

I don't think the hit is awful, but I wouldn't think someone was gutless if they didn't hit. The one person I will certainly hit here against is the one who might not double from the bar (perhaps you know they might not, because they have missed opportunities in the past to do so when they should.)

Against an unknown quantity, I would hit for that reason, plus one other: that if I let things roll on, they might reach a position where they cube but I guess wrongly which side of the line I am on. Here, at least I am pretty sure they have a double (I certainly would cube from the bar if in their position), but I am also very sure I have a take, and even more sure that if they fan I have a cube or recube. They need to pass, because I have too many checkers working to fill in the board fast, but if sunspot activity is high who knows what might happen? I wouldn't make a play to avoid a situation I might goof later if I thought the play was terrible, but here I don't think it is, even if a rollout shows it wrong--that is, I doubt it will be wrong by a lot.

I realize this has elements of cop-out, since the position is what it is, but how did you end up with three blots in your board? Were the alternatives so disgusting that this really was the best way to leave things, or did this tough decision arise because you didn't think ahead to the likely possibility that your opponent would leave indirects as they tried to come home safely plus fill in the 5 point if possible?

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