[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Bearoff Cube

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 4 August 2011, at 7:44 p.m.

In Response To: Bearoff Cube (leobueno)

It looked like more fun to play the other way ;- The cube decision here is straightforward.

Remember that a true 3-roll position wins 78.8%, and a true 2-roll position wins 86%.

Blue's position is slightly worse than that, since 1-1 takes off only 2 checkers and if Blue rolls three consecutive aces he's off in 4 rolls.

White's position is much better than a 3-roll position, most obviously because White can bear off in two rolls without rolling a doublet. So the take is clear.

What about the double? Well, you should see that on White's next roll many numbers fail to bear off two checkers, and they must all be market losers. Why? Because if Blue has taken 2 checkers off he has a two-roll position, and if Blue has taken 1 checker off he will bear off in two rolls unless he rolls consecutive aces. If White has missed, White has worse than a true 2-roll position.

You don't have to count the market losers. Just note that most of White's aces and threes miss and remember that the probability of rolling at least one ace or three is 20/36. So there must be a lot of market losing sequences.

Double/take.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.