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Do I misunderstand gammon price?

Posted By: Jeremy Bagai
Date: Thursday, 5 January 2012, at 5:27 p.m.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 79 7 point match pip: 40 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCCCCB-----------d----ebc-:2:1:1:54:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 54

1.	Rollout1	5/Off 4/Off	eq: +1.168
	Player: Opponent: 94.29% (G:19.49% B:0.15%) 5.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.167...+1.170) - [100.0%] Duration: 25.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	5/1 5/Off	eq: +1.123 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 99.62% (G:13.63% B:0.10%) 0.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.001 (+1.122...+1.124) - [0.0%] Duration: 9.2 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.01, MET: Kazaross XG2

XG says we should make the big play for the gammon. But I don't understand the numbers:

The big play wins 5.86 more gammons (19.49 - 13.63) but loses 5.33 more games (99.62 - 94.29).

For money you must win two extra gammons for each new game lost, and at this score your gammon price is slightly worse than for moeny. Using XG2, a plain win takes you to 76.21%, a gammon takes you to 100% (for a gain of 23.79%), and a plain loss takes you to 23.79% (for a loss of 52.42%).

23.79% / 52.42 = a gammon price of .4538, which is what XG reports in the cube info panel.

So if the gammon price is less than for money, and you win only slightly more new gammons than you lose new games, why does XG like the big play?

Messages In This Thread

• Do I misunderstand gammon price?
  Jeremy Bagai -- Thursday, 5 January 2012, at 5:27 p.m.
  • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
    Stick -- Thursday, 5 January 2012, at 5:28 p.m.
    • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
      Jeremy Bagai -- Thursday, 5 January 2012, at 5:47 p.m.
      • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
        Stick -- Thursday, 5 January 2012, at 5:48 p.m.
        • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 6 January 2012, at 3:14 a.m.
      • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 5 January 2012, at 5:50 p.m.
        • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
          poseidon -- Friday, 6 January 2012, at 3:51 p.m.
          • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
            Timothy Chow -- Friday, 6 January 2012, at 6:00 p.m.
          • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
            Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 6 January 2012, at 10:44 p.m.
  • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
    Phil Simborg -- Friday, 6 January 2012, at 9:01 p.m.
  • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
    leobueno -- Friday, 6 January 2012, at 10:48 p.m.
    • Do I misunderstand gammon price?
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 6 January 2012, at 11:22 p.m.