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Daily Quiz 1/25: Bot info Pos. 3

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 29 January 2012, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/25: XGR+ evals (Timothy Chow)

There was a question of Opponent's Game Winning Chance (GWC) in the third position. Here are two answers, from Gnubg 2-ply rollouts.

Blue on roll, cube decision?

White142

 ' '1O2X2X2X1O3X2X '2X1O

2O1X2O2O2O2O ' ' '2O ' '
Blue111
Position ID: 2OZmAEizbRhBCA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

(1) At DMP: White wins 29.3% 0.6%.

(2) Normal game after Double/Take: White wins 31.25% (28.2% S, 2.7% G, 0.35% BG). Those are the actual percentages, including games won with a redouble/pass, in a rollout that reported 29.14% 0.2% "cubeless" wins.

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.7597
Cubeful equities:
1.Double, pass +1.0000
2.Double, take +1.3826 +0.3826
3.No double +0.7829 -0.2171
Proper cube action:Double, pass
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Centered 1-cube0.69730.41060.0108-0.30270.05440.0019 +0.7597 +0.7829
Standard error0.00070.00080.0001-0.00070.00060.0001 0.0017 0.0042
Player White owns 2-cube0.70860.45450.0055-0.29140.05790.0038 +1.6309 +1.3826
Standard error0.00110.00160.0004-0.00110.00090.0010 0.0063 0.0098
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906893185 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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