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Daily Quiz 1/25: Bot info Pos. 3

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 29 January 2012, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/25: XGR+ evals (Timothy Chow)

There was a question of Opponent's Game Winning Chance (GWC) in the third position. Here are two answers, from Gnubg 2-ply rollouts.

Blue on roll, cube decision?

White	142
Blue	111
Position ID: 2OZmAEizbRhBCA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA

(1) At DMP: White wins 29.3% ±0.6%.

(2) Normal game after Double/Take: White wins 31.25% (28.2% S, 2.7% G, 0.35% BG). Those are the actual percentages, including games won with a redouble/pass, in a rollout that reported 29.14% ±0.2% "cubeless" wins.

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.7597
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, pass	+1.0000
2.	Double, take	+1.3826	+0.3826
3.	No double	+0.7829	-0.2171
Proper cube action:		Double, pass
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6973 0.4106 0.0108 - 0.3027 0.0544 0.0019 +0.7597 +0.7829 Standard error 0.0007 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0001 0.0017 0.0042 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7086 0.4545 0.0055 - 0.2914 0.0579 0.0038 +1.6309 +1.3826 Standard error 0.0011 0.0016 0.0004 - 0.0011 0.0009 0.0010 0.0063 0.0098
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
2000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906893185 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 1/25
  Daily Quiz -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 9:39 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/25
    David Rennie -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 9:55 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/25
    Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 26 January 2012, at 11:54 p.m.
    • Daily Quiz 1/25
      Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 10:55 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/25
    RobertFontaine -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 2:18 a.m.
    • Daily Quiz 1/25
      Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 10:38 a.m.
    • Daily Quiz 1/25
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 28 January 2012, at 12:57 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/25
    Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 3:59 a.m.
    • Daily Quiz 1/25
      Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 10:56 a.m.
      • Daily Quiz 1/25
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 4:50 p.m.
        • Daily Quiz 1/25
          Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 9:43 p.m.
          • Daily Quiz 1/25
            Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 10:18 p.m.
            • Daily Quiz 1/25
              Mr Majestyk -- Friday, 27 January 2012, at 11:30 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 1/25: XGR+ evals
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 28 January 2012, at 8:16 p.m.
    • Daily Quiz 1/25: Bot info Pos. 3
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 29 January 2012, at 1:38 a.m.