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BGonline.org Forums
Daily Quiz 1/25: Bot info Pos. 3
Posted By: Daniel Murphy In Response To: Daily Quiz 1/25: XGR+ evals (Timothy Chow)
Date: Sunday, 29 January 2012, at 1:38 a.m.
There was a question of Opponent's Game Winning Chance (GWC) in the third position. Here are two answers, from Gnubg 2-ply rollouts.
Blue on roll, cube decision?
White 142
Blue 111 Position ID: 2OZmAEizbRhBCA Match ID: cAkAAAAAAAAA (1) At DMP: White wins 29.3% ±0.6%.
(2) Normal game after Double/Take: White wins 31.25% (28.2% S, 2.7% G, 0.35% BG). Those are the actual percentages, including games won with a redouble/pass, in a rollout that reported 29.14% ±0.2% "cubeless" wins.
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.7597 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, pass +1.0000 2. Double, take +1.3826 +0.3826 3. No double +0.7829 -0.2171 Proper cube action: Double, pass Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6973 0.4106 0.0108 - 0.3027 0.0544 0.0019 +0.7597 +0.7829 Standard error 0.0007 0.0008 0.0001 - 0.0007 0.0006 0.0001 0.0017 0.0042 Player White owns 2-cube 0.7086 0.4545 0.0055 - 0.2914 0.0579 0.0038 +1.6309 +1.3826 Standard error 0.0011 0.0016 0.0004 - 0.0011 0.0009 0.0010 0.0063 0.0098 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2000 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 906893185 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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