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BootCamp problem

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 17 February 2012, at 1:24 a.m.

In Response To: BootCamp problem (pontiac)

18/14 is forced, after which there are three legal 3's. We're ahead in the race and White has a killer board, so the first order of business is to count shots and blots.

4/1: 28 shots, 2 blots

14/11: 24 shots, 1 blot

18/15: 21 shots, 2 blots

I see no reason to play 4/1 so let's exclude it from further consideration. For the remaining two plays, the other issues that I think are important are:

- If we're hit, what's the cube action? Will White cash or play on?

- If we're not hit, what's the cube action? If it's not D/P, how easy will it be for us to clean up our blots and bring the game home?

If we're hit, then I think White can usually play on, especially if she has chances of picking up a second blot and especially in the first position where she really wants to win a gammon. If we're not hit, then it matters somewhat what White rolls, but to my eyes, 14/11 and 18/15 look about equally good from this perspective.

QF suggests that the top play is different at the two match scores. If so, then my guess is that 18/11 is the play at 4a7a because the two blots give White too many gammons, while 18/15 18/14 is the play at 7a6a because it leaves fewer shots.

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