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New model for money game cube decision points

Posted By: Mark Higgins
Date: Tuesday, 27 March 2012, at 12:46 a.m.

In case there's interest here, I've been developing a new model for calculating cube decision points in money games. Link here:

http://arxiv.org/abs/1203.5692

It's an extension of Janowski's model. His model accounts for the odds of losing your market by interpolating between the dead cube model, where the cube has no value, and the live cube model, where the cubeless win probability diffuses continuously and you can always wait until right before the cash point to offer your double.

My model also models the cubeless win probability, but assumes it jumps from step to step instead of changing continuously. The advantage of this approach is that the model parameters can be calculated in a local game state with a 2-ply evaluation, which leads to crisper doubling decisions.

It's a bit technical, but I'd love any feedback from the backgammon community!

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