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Daily Quiz 4/2

Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Tuesday, 10 April 2012, at 10:28 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 4/2 (Daily Quiz)

Daily Quiz 2 april 2012

Number 1

We can make the 4 point, the 3-point or move 13/7 here. If white can escape (and he can try with every 6), he is a 70% race-favourite. Of course one can reason that blue has (after playing 13/7) ample chances to hit the lonely blot, he still isn't a favourite to do so safely, since hitting loose cannot be recommended against a 5-point board opposition. Pointing on the 3-blot is a 11% risk of losing the 30% race-chance and a maximum of 25% gammons. On the other hand white has a 44% fanning-chance where blue gains 24% race.

Number 2

To compare the risks and reward of the plays 15/14 8x3 and 24/23 15/10 we have to think about what risks really are. The obvious risks of the hit-play are the rehits: 20/36. The risks of 15/10 24/23 are not only the hits: 10/36, here we should add the risk of white escaping: 63,54,65,D6, making a total of 17/36.

Now the risk of hitting is still higher, combined with the small reward (a small blitzing-chance and a the 3-point is a mediocre point) and the stripping of the 8-point, makes 24/23 15/10 better.

Number 3

Position 3 comes out of the same game (we can see that blue, Stick has played 24/23), and things went well for Stick. But is it a double? The counter-4-prime makes things a little complicated. Let's see what can happen:

a) Blue escapes (6/36), white has then 10/36 returns --> 60/1296

b) Blue makes a 5-prime (9/36), white returns with D1 --> 9/1296

c) Other blue moves (21/36), white returns with a D1, D2 or 26 --> 84/1296

The white total of good positions is 153/1296, about 12%. This suggests that white will not make it to the 25%.

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