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***Warning Bot Info***

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 8:45 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 05/12/12 (Stick)

I've run two rollouts with the 100 elo diff MET. The second one using GNU 0-ply drops 0.022 equity compared to GNU 2-ply. I don't think this reflects fully 100 elo difference since 0-ply is only around 60 elo weaker on the figures I have.

I'd figure it actually around a 0.99 take from that, rather than the 0.95 from deciding it's basically no skill.

The score (after 0 games) is: GNU 0, Neil 0 (match to 15 points)

Move number 2: GNU on roll, cube decision?

GNU	85
Neil	100
Position ID: s+0SAAMrvm0AAA Match ID: MAHgAQAAAAAE

• GNU doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.587	(Money: +0.588)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.954
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.046
3.	No double	+0.893	-0.061
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.791 0.008 0.000 - 0.209 0.003 0.000 +0.587 +0.893 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.003 Player Neil owns 2-cube 0.796 0.007 0.000 - 0.204 0.003 0.000 +1.107 +0.954 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 914394813 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

• GNU doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.596	(Money: +0.597)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.976
2.	Double, pass	+1.000	+0.024
3.	No double	+0.908	-0.068
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.795 0.010 0.000 - 0.205 0.003 0.000 +0.596 +0.908 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.004 Player Neil owns 2-cube 0.800 0.009 0.000 - 0.200 0.002 0.000 +1.127 +0.976 Standard error 0.001 0.000 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.004
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 914394813 and quasi-random dice
Player 0:
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Player 1:
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

Messages In This Thread

• OLM Sa 05/12/12
  Jason Lee -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 2:19 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 2:31 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 2:53 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:12 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    Stick -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:15 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 05/12/12
      David Rennie -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:37 a.m.
      • OLM Sa 05/12/12
        Stick -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:48 a.m.
        • OLM Sa 05/12/12
          Neil Robins -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 4:31 a.m.
          • OLM Sa 05/12/12
            Stick -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 4:54 a.m.
            • ***Warning Bot Info***
              Neil Robins -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 8:45 a.m.
    • OLM Sa 05/12/12
      Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:55 a.m.
      • OLM Sa 05/12/12
        Stick -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 4:16 a.m.
        • OLM Sa 05/12/12
          Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 4:54 a.m.
          • OLM Sa 05/12/12
            Stick -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 4:58 a.m.
            • OLM Sa 05/12/12
              Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 5:28 a.m.
            • OLM Sa 05/12/12
              neilkaz -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 10:55 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    David Rennie -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:33 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    lenny -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:42 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    Neil Robins -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 4:38 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    higonefive -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 9:31 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    MishyPoo -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 3:37 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 13 May 2012, at 11:43 p.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12
    Havard Raddum -- Monday, 14 May 2012, at 6:52 a.m.
  • OLM Sa 05/12/12 ROLLOUT
    Jason Lee -- Saturday, 19 May 2012, at 1:23 a.m.