The position after Blue correctly makes the 3pt is shown below. Although Blue trails by 13 pips (and the roll) and leaves a shot, his superior structure (which now includes his 3pt) makes him a slight favorite.
Although Blue leaves a blot on his midpoint, White's only good hits are 41 61 44, and even these are not fatal for Blue. If not hit, Blue gains from the contact of keeping this blot on the 13pt when White rolls something like 52 53 54 64 65, or even 11.
Trailing in the race, Blue has better timing than White. Blue can therefore afford to sit on his anchor and wait. Let's look a few rolls ahead. Blue can play his 13pt blot for his next roll or two, and then perhaps break his 8pt and/or 7pt while maintaining his 11pt, keeping White's 20pt anchor blocked while waiting and hoping for something good to happen (like a hit or a large double).
                       |
| ||||
| XGID=---BBbBBB--BbA---c-cB-bab-:0:0:-1:00:0:1:0:11:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 48.59% (G:8.20% B:0.12%) | 48.62% (G:8.32% B:0.12%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 51.41% (G:8.85% B:0.29%) | 51.38% (G:8.80% B:0.29%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.034 | -0.057 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | -0.049 | |
| Double/Take: | -0.472 (-0.423) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.049) | |
| Best Cube action: No double / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 22.3% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2