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Cubing against ace pt game
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Cubing against ace pt game (Timothy Chow)
Date: Wednesday, 20 June 2012, at 9:23 p.m.
Deciding how much the recube power influences the initial cube is difficult. So I just looked at a couple positions at both money and at various scores and use them to get an idea of how much to adjust from money play knowledge. I looked mainly at the positions 54S 33A F cube and race with leader at 80 pips cube.
For the blitz position it is a .84 take for money but a .87 take for 7a getting cubed by 6a.
For the race a a 78.5% position is the borderline pass/take but at 6a 7a it is a solid pass at 1.085
That is where I got my statements from. I didn't use a math model of cube power. Now for the actual position I may be wrong and the score actually does argue against the score. From the RO the cube is a .057 error for money and a.073 error at the score. So it may be that initial cubes come just slightly later but the cashes come sooner (and I would say it more than just slightly). I am rerolling those positions out with more trials and also do the money rollout without Jacoby which I think is a better comparison.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 163Unlimited Game pip: 155
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.560% (G:27.512% B:1.210%) 66.490% (G:27.759% B:1.168%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.440% (G:7.391% B:0.328%) 33.510% (G:7.454% B:0.357%) Cubeless Equities +0.5412 +1.0819 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.7912 (-0.0513) Double/Take: +0.8426 Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+0.1574) Best Cube action: Double / Take eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1637 point match pip: 155
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=aa-B-BC-A---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 66.521% (G:27.567% B:1.201%) 66.636% (G:27.456% B:1.199%) Opponent Winning Chances: 33.479% (G:7.362% B:0.337%) 33.364% (G:7.366% B:0.359%) Cubeless Equities +0.5788 +1.2232 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.8018 (-0.0712) Double/Take: +0.8730 Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+0.1270) Best Cube action: Double / Take eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 90Unlimited Game pip: 80
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=---CCCCA-AA--c-----cccc---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 78.498% (G:0.001% B:0.000%) 78.534% (G:0.002% B:0.000%) Opponent Winning Chances: 21.502% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 21.466% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Cubeless Equities +0.5700 +1.1414 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.8681 (-0.1319) Double/Take: +1.0022 (+0.0022) Double/Pass: +1.0000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 907 point match pip: 80
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=---CCCCA-AA--c-----cccc---:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 78.485% (G:0.001% B:0.000%) 78.535% (G:0.001% B:0.000%) Opponent Winning Chances: 21.515% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) 21.465% (G:0.000% B:0.000%) Cubeless Equities +0.5697 +1.2509 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.8881 (-0.1119) Double/Take: +1.0854 (+0.0854) Double/Pass: +1.0000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
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