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BGonline.org Forums
*Rollouts*
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: *Rollouts* (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Wednesday, 27 June 2012, at 12:16 a.m.
I wanted to see if the score is an argument for or against the double compared to money play and did longer rollouts and also did Money without Jacoby which I think is a better comparison.
It hardly makes a difference but the double is wrong by slightly more at score than for money. .068 vs. .060
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 1347 point match pip: 112
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=-bBC-BBAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:1:0:0:7:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.924% (G:17.717% B:1.153%) 65.026% (G:17.756% B:1.226%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.076% (G:9.617% B:0.439%) 34.974% (G:9.646% B:0.492%) Cubeless Equities +0.4079 +0.8806 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.6257 ±0.0026 (+0.6232..+0.6283) Double/Take: +0.5581 (-0.0676) ±0.0032 (+0.5549..+0.5614) Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+0.3743) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 13.3% Rollout details 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 13 hours 21 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 134Unlimited Game pip: 112
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=-bBC-BBAA---bB---bBccba---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 64.984% (G:17.369% B:1.074%) 65.093% (G:17.379% B:1.088%) Opponent Winning Chances: 35.016% (G:9.529% B:0.389%) 34.907% (G:9.501% B:0.388%) Cubeless Equities +0.3849 +0.7753 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.6038 ±0.0026 (+0.6012..+0.6064) Double/Take: +0.5442 (-0.0596) ±0.0031 (+0.5411..+0.5474) Double/Pass: +1.0000 (+0.3962) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.6% Rollout details 41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 15 hours 06 minutes eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.02
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