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BGonline.org Forums
Thoughts OTB and RO
Posted By: neilkaz In Response To: Vegas blotting 61 play (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 19 November 2012, at 2:09 a.m.
I remember that 2 away 8 away = 1/8..ie that I win the match 12.5% of the time from that score (actual MET RO says 12.46% so close enuf).
I considered that if I left 11 shots and was hit, that my opp would have a very strong recube and that it would be efficient enough that I'd effectively never win. In actuality it seems that I have a pass if hit as the checkers on the 4 pt plus my gap are just too wasteful and make my position as bad as if I had only 3 checkers off.
I considered that if I left 13 shots and took off an extra checker that I'd have a take if hit and that my opp probably wouldn't cube me right away nor should he. However, in this position type, it seems likely that he can get to a very efficient recube after hitting. I figured that he had to effectively win at least 85% of the games AtS after hitting and 85% x 13 is 11.05% which is more that 11%.
What about added G's? Well I was certain I'd win a tad more rare G's if I ripped the extra checker but since I really felt that my opp could effectively win almost 90% after he hits owning the cube even AtS meaning that he was winning almost 11.7 of his 13 hits.. I ended up leaving 11 shots.
I was hit with a 32 and then my opp gave me many free shakes before cashing, however his squandered equity didn't ammount to much.
White is Player 2
score: 11
pip: 8515 point match pip: 41
score: 7
Blue is Player 1XGID=-CaBE-B------a---a-bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:61:7:11:0:15:10 Blue to play 61
1. Rollout1 6/5 6/Off eq: +0.3911
Player:
Opponent:71.36% (G:2.58% B:0.02%)
28.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ±0.0004 (+0.3907...+0.3915) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds2. Rollout1 6/Off 1/Off eq: +0.3435 (-0.0476)
Player:
Opponent:68.56% (G:3.29% B:0.04%)
31.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)Conf.: ±0.0011 (+0.3424...+0.3446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 29 seconds1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
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