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Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Thursday, 3 January 2013, at 2:31 a.m.

In Response To: Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary (joe freedman)

Position 2.

Of the three candidates rolled out, I find B24 5/3* the most interesting. This choice offers "goodness of fit" in explaining why B23 24/23 is a strong candidate for top spot and why B23 22/21 is least fancied.

70 pips of timing is sufficient for a 4-3, 4-2 & 41 backgame with flexible distribution. This is something that Blue lacks as his forward position is too advanced and too rigid to do anything meaningful with.

B23 22/21 leaves Blue's distribution tighter than a pig skin drum; he'll need to roll very well to ease the pressure on the 21pt anchor. In the meantime, White may choose to hit on the deuce activating an exchange of hits at a time that Blue can ill afford to get into.

If White is forced to hit after B24 5/3* blue will have the 100 pips he needs to carry out a 1-3 backgame. However, Blue will still have the issue of distribution to negotiate. He'll welcome an exchange of hits if he rolls a 6 and is attacked on the 21pt. This maybe the ticket he needs to address his awful structure.

B23 24/23 prevents White from foiling Blue's timing by hitting and allows Blue to unlock the 21pt anchor.

White is Player 2 score: 7 pip: 128 9 point match pip: 202 score: 4 Blue is Player 1 XGID=---aCBB----A--b-bcbcbBC-AA:1:-1:1:21:4:7:0:9:10 Blue to play 21

1. Rollout1 Bar/23 24/23 eq: -0.259 Player: Opponent: 33.66% (G:4.71% B:0.16%) 66.34% (G:39.44% B:5.16%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.269...-0.249) - [100.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 15 seconds 2. Rollout1 Bar/24 5/3* eq: -0.284 (-0.025) Player: Opponent: 33.40% (G:3.28% B:0.15%) 66.60% (G:43.40% B:11.47%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.295...-0.274) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 25 seconds 3. Rollout1 Bar/23 22/21 eq: -0.297 (-0.038) Player: Opponent: 32.02% (G:4.31% B:0.19%) 67.98% (G:42.85% B:5.89%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.307...-0.287) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 47 seconds   1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

NBM

Messages In This Thread

• Three timing plays -- Blotto was 0/3
  joe freedman -- Tuesday, 1 January 2013, at 6:05 p.m.
  • Three timing plays -- Blotto was 0/3
    christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 1 January 2013, at 7:56 p.m.
  • Three timing plays -- Blotto was 0/3
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 January 2013, at 10:41 p.m.
    • Three timing plays -- Blotto was 0/3
      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 2 January 2013, at 9:00 a.m.
  • Three timing plays -- Blotto was 0/3
    Smcrtorchs -- Wednesday, 2 January 2013, at 2:36 p.m.
  • Three timing plays -- Blotto was 0/3
    Chase -- Wednesday, 2 January 2013, at 10:35 p.m.
  • Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary
    joe freedman -- Wednesday, 2 January 2013, at 10:55 p.m.
    • Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary
      Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 January 2013, at 11:34 p.m.
      • Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary
        joe freedman -- Thursday, 3 January 2013, at 12:33 a.m.
        • Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary
          Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 3 January 2013, at 1:52 a.m.
          • Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary
            higonefive -- Friday, 4 January 2013, at 7:40 a.m.
      • Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary
        Smcrtorchs -- Thursday, 3 January 2013, at 12:32 p.m.
    • Three timing plays -- analysis and commentary
      Mr Majestyk -- Thursday, 3 January 2013, at 2:31 a.m.