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Rollout: Caution: You are about to enter the no QF zone

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 4 March 2013, at 5:13 p.m.

In Response To: Caution: You are about to enter the no QF zone (Timothy Chow)

QF means that we're not allowed to hit, so 15/11 13/11 is forced.

It's not so clear to me, however, how to balance the various factors OTB. Certainly 15/9* gives White an immediate return shot from the bar, and potentially increases later shots. However, 15/9* also gains a tempo to start clearing our outfield checkers and bring our checkers home safely. After 15/11 13/11, 61 and 51 give White an immediate direct shot, and some other rolls force us to hit and give White a 63 (at least) from the bar anyway, at a time when White's board might be stronger.

I should probably play around with variants to get some more insight into the tradeoffs.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
1 point match
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--b-BCD-Ba--bC-A-bbdb-----:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 42

1.Rollout115/11 13/11eq: +0.509
Player:
Opponent:		 75.45% (G:30.34% B:3.69%)
24.55% (G:2.71% B:0.21%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.502...+0.516)
Duration: 5 hours 07 minutes
2.Rollout115/9* eq: +0.463 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		 73.13% (G:38.30% B:5.20%)
26.87% (G:3.72% B:0.26%)		Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.456...+0.470)
Duration: 5 hours 41 minutes
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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