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OLM 2013-06-12

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 13 June 2013, at 2:16 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 2013-06-12 (Jason Lee)

24/20 23/22.

I don't believe our play makes any difference since leading 1-away 4-away post-Crawford I believe we will use our free drop since we will be a small but clear underdog.

But if the score were 1-away 3-away I believe the mirror play 24/20 23/22 would be my pick over 6/5* 24/20. 23/18 does not look as good to me, since it leaves two checkers on our 24 point and goes after a worse anchor.

Comparing 24/20 6/5* and 24/20 23/22:

After 24/20 6/5*, 26/36 responses hit on our 5 point, of which 5/36 also hit on our 20 point, and 1/36 number hits (points) on our 20 point but not our 5 point. Since Opponent is on the bar, only some doublets point-on-head. 1/36 number fans, and 8/36 numbers (most sixes) do nothing special.

In summary, 27/36 numbers do us clear harm, mainly by costing us 20 pips and putting us on the bar, 8/36 numbers give us a small advantage on average, and the one fanning number is obviously good for us.

After 24/20 23/22, 1/36 numbers point-on-head on our 20 and 22, 4/36 point-on-head on our 20, 3/36 numbers point-on-head on our 22, and 2/36 numbers point-on-head on our 23. 6/36 numbers point somewhere without hitting, 4/36 numbers anchor and hit loose on our 20, 8/36 numbers merely anchor, 4/36 numbers hit loose on our 20 and 22 points, and 4/36 number hit loose on our 20 point only.

In summary, after 24/20 23/22, only 10/36 numbers give Opponent a clear advantage but they are all good to excellent point-on-head numbers. On the other hand, in response to all or nearly all of the other 26/36 rolls we should be a very strong favorite to at least equalize and we appear to be a favorite on average to have positive equity.

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