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Spoiler Rollouts for first problem

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 19 June 2013, at 5:06 p.m.

In Response To: Two similar positions (Keene)

In looking how to play this 32 I waffled pretty strongly between what Keene played OtB and slotting the point. I won't bore you with the pluses and minuses as I saw it of each play but I was surprised when I put it into XG and saw how big of an error it was to make Keene's play.

 White is Player 2 score: 4 pip: 98 11 point match pip: 123 score: 3 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-BBBBB----A---cacbbbBa-:1:1:1:32:3:4:0:11:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout18/3eq: +0.370
 Player:Opponent: 57.17% (G:8.57% B:0.47%)42.83% (G:18.34% B:1.86%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.357...+0.384) - [100.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 17 seconds
2.Rollout28/6 8/5eq: +0.277 (-0.094)
 Player:Opponent: 53.86% (G:8.14% B:0.30%)46.14% (G:12.73% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.266...+0.287) - [0.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 16 seconds
1 836 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18905934
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 835 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18905934
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

A blunder to play 8/6 8/5?! Surely you jest. This is why it's so important to remove all the variables sometimes when you're trying to understand a problem. Us humans may see no tangible difference on the surface in a normal match and 8a 7a holding a 2 cube but it exists and apparently in a big enough way to affect this play. Here's a rollout for money and more along the lines with what I was thinking when I originally saw the problem.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 98 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 123 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-BBBBB----A---cacbbbBa-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout18/3eq: +0.248
 Player:Opponent: 56.89% (G:8.36% B:0.26%)43.11% (G:17.57% B:1.09%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.239...+0.257) - [99.8%]Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout18/6 8/5eq: +0.230 (-0.018)
 Player:Opponent: 53.79% (G:7.91% B:0.27%)46.21% (G:11.87% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.221...+0.239) - [0.2%]Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 95424667
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now how many of you thought to yourselves "Well, because of the score slotting clearly has to be right!"?

Stick

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