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End Game Double - Beaver - Take Action?

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Sunday, 30 June 2013, at 11:07 a.m.

In Response To: End Game Double - Beaver - Take Action? (Chris Yep)

Thanks for an excellent analysis, Chris. Also thanks to Daniel.

It’s very tough to see that this isn’t a normal 25% (or 22%) take situation and I think it would catch most players out (including me). What’s hard to see is that, in effect the player beavered is being quadrupled back, because he may as well assume that he will be taking an 8-cube unless he gets lucky. In this situation the beavered player is facing odds of 5 to 3 rather than the normal 3 to 1, when considering risk versus reward for a dead cube). This means that the take point window is between 37.5% (dead cube) to 30% (live cube = 0.80*37.5). In these positions, where the likelihood of redoubling without having lost your market by a mile (or 1.6 kilometres), cube vig is very small for the beaver-taker. Consequently, the take point is close to the dead value at about 36.3% (from interpolation).

Curiously, this situation is virtually equivalent to the Danish “Softies” variation nicely described by Phil Simborg in a very recent post regarding beavering. The only difference is who beavers and when, but that doesn’t change the fact that the player will (or is likely to) be holding a cube 4 times the size of the cube he could have passed).

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