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53P-32S-52H-65 — UG and –4–8 — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Tuesday, 9 July 2013, at 6:51 p.m.

This position came up in the OLM at GammonU on Sunday. I posted these rollouts over there, but I like to put them here as well. Otherwise they are lost in 7 days when GammonU truncates its index.

The 4-away/8-away score tips the balance in favor of the splot.
In unlimited games, running is just as good or better.

Petter Bengtsson suggests the difference is due to GS effects. I suspect he is right.

Mike

4-away, 8-away
is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 152
11 point match
pip: 166
score: 7

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AdD---c-c-ab-AA:0:0:1:65:7:3:0:11:10
to play 65
1.Rollout1Bar/20 11/5eq: -0.4262
Player:
Opponent:		43.29% (G:11.40% B:0.98%)
56.71% (G:20.17% B:1.09%)		Conf.: ±0.0030 (-0.4292...-0.4232) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 19 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/14eq: -0.4391 (-0.0129)
Player:
Opponent:		44.30% (G:10.41% B:0.97%)
55.70% (G:20.82% B:0.73%)		Conf.: ±0.0031 (-0.4422...-0.4359) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 21 minutes
 
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46549488
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Jul-07
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
MET: Kazaross XG2
53P-32S-52H-65.-4-8-tm.xgp
-4-8 [W R13] "<=31
-4-8 [W R4] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

53P-32S-52H-65 — According to Score
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 687329498 –490.584 –4–8 [W R13] /0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR, MET: Kazaross XG2 [Petter 31k + Mike 31k] –426 –4–8 [W R12] "<=62 [XG2 Aggregate]
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR, MET: Kazaross XG2 13579 –426 –4–8 [W 11] "<=31 Petter Bengtsson (subscribers only)
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR, MET: Kazaross XG2 46549488 –426.2 –4–8 [W R13] "<=31 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval, MET: Kazaross XG2 [XGR++ seed] –445.2 –4–8 [W R4] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: R (Run) = bar/14, W (Wild) = bar/20 11/5

Explanation of nacbracs

Unlimited Games
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 166
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C--AdD---c-c-ab-AA:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
to play 65
1.Rollout1Bar/14eq: -0.2976
Player:
Opponent:		44.36% (G:10.51% B:0.54%)
55.64% (G:20.68% B:0.85%)		Conf.: ±0.0022 (-0.2998...-0.2954) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 51 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 11/5eq: -0.3051 (-0.0075)
Player:
Opponent:		43.52% (G:11.41% B:0.50%)
56.48% (G:20.23% B:1.15%)		Conf.: ±0.0021 (-0.3072...-0.3030) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 hours 10 minutes
 
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46549488
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2013-Jul-08
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
53P-32S-52H-65-tm.xgp
[R W7] "<=62
[R W21] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

53P-32S-52H-65 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc 687245583 –344.076 [R W16] /0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR [Petter 20k + Mike 62k] –298 [R W9] "<=82 [XG2 Aggregate]
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 13579 –299 [R W12] "<=20 Petter Bengtsson (subscribers only)
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 46549488 –297.6 [R W7] "<=62 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –296.8 [R W21] "&e Taper_Mike

Key: R (Run) = bar/14, W (Wild) = bar/20 11/5

Explanation of nacbracs

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