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Average number of games in a match

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Wednesday, 10 July 2013, at 1:30 a.m.

Hello, I have a few questions for those who might be interested (or able to answer them).

Let's say it's 0-0 to 7 and I am offered a cube which happens to be marginal take/pass.
If I take, how many more games on average will be played?
If I pass, how many more games on average will be played?

Obviously, if I take match should be bit shorter (in the number of games), but by how much? I think this also depends on the type of position. Taking a cube in a marginal and highly gammonish position should shorten the match a bit more than taking it in the marginal holding-game (gammonless) position, right? I'd be interested to know the answer for different scores and for different types of positions. (also for different cube levels)

Practical application of this would be in fish adjustments.
By knowing how much passing lengthens the match we might be able to estimate how much more MWC is our weaker opponent going to give up in subsequent games, if we pass instead of taking.
So for example, playing against weaker opponent, we might decide to pass something that is let's say 1.50% error in terms of lost MWC if we are confident that our opponent is going to give up much more than that in subsequent games of the match.

Thanks in advance for any input you might have.

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