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Average number of games in a match

Posted By: Tom Keith
Date: Friday, 12 July 2013, at 6:01 p.m.

In Response To: Average number of games in a match (Mislav Kovacic)

Here is a table I created using simulation.

Average number of games to go based on score:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 1.000 1.355 1.669 1.694 1.835 1.833 1.969 1.925 2.036 1.976 2.071
2 1.355 1.000 1.732 1.954 2.314 2.405 2.688 2.794 2.893 2.890 3.001
3 1.669 1.732 2.403 2.659 3.011 3.192 3.461 3.640 3.794 3.895 4.044
4 1.694 1.954 2.659 3.144 3.518 3.758 4.086 4.351 4.543 4.679 4.796
5 1.835 2.314 3.011 3.518 3.963 4.300 4.641 4.906 5.168 5.381 5.532
6 1.833 2.405 3.192 3.758 4.300 4.661 5.080 5.407 5.725 6.031 6.213
7 1.969 2.688 3.461 4.086 4.641 5.080 5.532 5.927 6.270 6.575 6.843
8 1.925 2.794 3.640 4.351 4.906 5.407 5.927 6.318 6.722 7.055 7.373
9 2.036 2.893 3.794 4.543 5.168 5.725 6.270 6.722 7.175 7.535 7.874
10 1.976 2.890 3.895 4.679 5.381 6.031 6.575 7.055 7.535 7.916 8.332
11 2.071 3.001 4.044 4.796 5.532 6.213 6.843 7.373 7.874 8.332 8.789

Something to note is that games-to-go is only an approximate measure of the opportunity for skill left in a match.

Take, for example, post-Crawford 2-away versus post-Crawford 3-away (not shown in the table). PC 2-away is a longer match in terms of games-to-go. That's because half the time trailer's initial double is free-dropped, adding a game, whereas at PC 3-away trailer's double is always taken. Games-to-go is deceptive in this case because there is probably more "play" left at PC 3-away.

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