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Goofy score, can you resist?

Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 12:32 p.m.

In Response To: Goofy score, can you resist? (Keene)

		White is Player 1 score: 14 pip: 159 17 point match pip: 101 score: 6 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--B-ACCA-------b-dcbbCb-B-:0:0:-1:D:14:6:0:17:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.95% (G:24.10% B:1.82%)	71.34% (G:23.71% B:1.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.05% (G:2.39% B:0.06%)	28.66% (G:2.09% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.632	+1.396
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+1.009	±0.004 (+1.005..+1.013)
Double/Take:	+1.357 (+0.348)	±0.011 (+1.346..+1.368)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.009)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 10607791 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Big drop, and marginally too good. At first glance it felt quite tasty, but I quickly decided that on many sequences the 4pt doesnt hold long enough, and I lose enough gammons to make me feel quite queasy. Not overly difficult at score.

Now.. for money.. Its a straight D/P. Again, the position doesnt hold well enough, and loses too many gammons.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 159 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 101 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--B-ACCA-------b-dcbbCb-B-:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.12% (G:23.83% B:1.93%)	71.29% (G:23.97% B:1.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.88% (G:2.25% B:0.06%)	28.71% (G:2.22% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.657	+1.322
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.963 (-0.037)
Double/Take:	+1.096 (+0.096)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Goofy score, can you resist?
  Keene -- Monday, 15 July 2013, at 12:25 a.m.
  • Goofy score, can you resist?
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 15 July 2013, at 2:43 p.m.
  • Goofy score, can you resist?
    ah_clem -- Monday, 15 July 2013, at 3:42 p.m.
    • Goofy score, can you resist?
      ah_clem -- Monday, 15 July 2013, at 9:08 p.m.
      • Goofy score, can you resist?
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 1:06 a.m.
        • Goofy score, can you resist?
          ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 1:43 p.m.
          • Goofy score, can you resist?
            neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 4:25 p.m.
  • Goofy score, can you resist?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 15 July 2013, at 7:06 p.m.
    • Goofy score, can you resist?
      Igor -- Monday, 15 July 2013, at 7:36 p.m.
      • Goofy score, can you resist?
        neilkaz -- Monday, 15 July 2013, at 8:16 p.m.
  • Goofy score, can you resist?
    Sam Pottle -- Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 10:28 a.m.
  • Goofy score, can you resist?
    Keene -- Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 12:32 p.m.
    • Goofy score, can you resist?
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 4:41 p.m.