[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Goofy score, can you resist?

Posted By: Keene
Date: Tuesday, 16 July 2013, at 12:32 p.m.

In Response To: Goofy score, can you resist? (Keene)





White is Player 1

score: 14
pip: 159
17 point match
pip: 101
score: 6

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--B-ACCA-------b-dcbbCb-B-:0:0:-1:D:14:6:0:17:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 70.95% (G:24.10% B:1.82%) 71.34% (G:23.71% B:1.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 29.05% (G:2.39% B:0.06%) 28.66% (G:2.09% B:0.22%)
Cubeless Equities +0.632 +1.396
Cubeful Equities
No double:+1.0090.004 (+1.005..+1.013)
Double/Take:+1.357 (+0.348)0.011 (+1.346..+1.368)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.009)
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 10607791
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Big drop, and marginally too good. At first glance it felt quite tasty, but I quickly decided that on many sequences the 4pt doesnt hold long enough, and I lose enough gammons to make me feel quite queasy. Not overly difficult at score.

Now.. for money.. Its a straight D/P. Again, the position doesnt hold well enough, and loses too many gammons.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 101
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--B-ACCA-------b-dcbbCb-B-:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 71.12% (G:23.83% B:1.93%) 71.29% (G:23.97% B:1.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.88% (G:2.25% B:0.06%) 28.71% (G:2.22% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.657 +1.322
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.963 (-0.037)
Double/Take:+1.096 (+0.096)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.