First of all, thanks for all your ideas and explanations, this was very helpful. Many points you mentioned were not on my list OTB.
My play OTB was 6/2* 10/8. I think the reason for hitting is NOT to take away his racing chances, but to gain more G if this play works.
Another reason for me to hit was that the play 10/4 will leave a bunch of future coming home problems. Looks easy on first sight,
but I just was not sure how many ugly rolls might show up down the road.
So, I had to compare 10/8 to 4/2 which shifts the gap in my board.
In general, if things go wrong, I like to have him sitting deeper in my board. More problems to escape, less outfield control.
Plus if he hits me with a 2, and I roll 13 14 15 23 24 from the bar, I can play that ugl roll safe. Not so in case I play 4/2. Then I would have to
unlock my 10pt.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-BaBBBC---B-bB--aa-bbbd---:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:7:10 | | Blue to play 42 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 6/2* 4/2 | eq: +0,608 | | Player:
Opponent: | 73,27% (G:26,23% B:0,17%)
26,73% (G:5,61% B:0,20%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,604...+0,613) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 10/8 6/2* | eq: +0,583 (-0,025) | | Player:
Opponent: | 72,72% (G:27,81% B:0,17%)
27,28% (G:9,76% B:0,52%) | Conf.: ± 0,005 (+0,578...+0,588) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 10/4 | eq: +0,520 (-0,088) | | Player:
Opponent: | 75,17% (G:12,04% B:0,13%)
24,83% (G:3,12% B:0,17%) | Conf.: ± 0,004 (+0,516...+0,524) - [0,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 37 seconds |
| | | 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point
Does cube position have an effect? (++ only, too lazy for full RO)
her cube
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-BaBBBC---B-bB--aa-bbbd---:1:-1:1:42:0:1:0:7:10 | | Blue to play 42 | | | 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/2* 4/2 | eq: +0,620 | | Player:
Opponent: | 73,44% (G:26,31% B:0,19%)
26,56% (G:5,81% B:0,17%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | 10/8 6/2* | eq: +0,593 (-0,027) | | Player:
Opponent: | 72,84% (G:27,98% B:0,22%)
27,16% (G:9,96% B:0,38%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | 10/4 | eq: +0,527 (-0,093) | | Player:
Opponent: | 75,02% (G:12,31% B:0,12%)
24,98% (G:3,08% B:0,13%) | |
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point
cube centered
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-BaBBBC---B-bB--aa-bbbd---:0:0:1:42:0:1:0:7:10 | | Blue to play 42 | | | 1. | XG Roller++ | 10/4 | eq: +0,807 | | Player:
Opponent: | 74,83% (G:11,89% B:0,12%)
25,17% (G:2,42% B:0,05%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | 6/2* 4/2 | eq: +0,649 (-0,157) | | Player:
Opponent: | 73,08% (G:25,71% B:0,30%)
26,92% (G:6,00% B:0,16%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | 10/8 6/2* | eq: +0,648 (-0,158) | | Player:
Opponent: | 72,91% (G:26,78% B:0,20%)
27,09% (G:9,79% B:0,37%) | |
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point
my cube
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 90
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-BaBBBC---B-bB--aa-bbbd---:1:1:1:42:0:1:0:7:10 | | Blue to play 42 | | | 1. | XG Roller++ | 10/4 | eq: +0,851 | | Player:
Opponent: | 74,78% (G:11,84% B:0,11%)
25,22% (G:2,47% B:0,05%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | 6/2* 4/2 | eq: +0,788 (-0,063) | | Player:
Opponent: | 73,14% (G:25,40% B:0,19%)
26,86% (G:5,88% B:0,16%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | 10/8 6/2* | eq: +0,744 (-0,107) | | Player:
Opponent: | 72,87% (G:26,86% B:0,21%)
27,13% (G:9,87% B:0,38%) | |
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: GnuBG 11 point
Wow, cube position matters a lot. Why is that? If my safe play works, I can give a well timed cube on the next shake?