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Pascal's Triangle
Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Tuesday, 30 July 2013, at 11:52 p.m.
In Response To: OFF TOPIC: Probability question (Mislav Kovacic)
Go to http://en.wikipedia.org/ and search for "Pascal's Triangle".
The second value (from left) in a row says how many judges are undecided. So row 5 is the one to use. Entries are number who vote in your favor starting with 0 and ending with 4. Add the entries corresponding to 2, 3, and 4 and divide by the sum of the row (which is always a power of 2).
Of course in the real world you aren't "sure" of a judge's vote until s/he makes it. As always there are uncertainties to be considered/estimated/quoted.

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