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Free drop after you won the opening move

Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 7 August 2013, at 8:20 p.m.

I assumed that if you win an opening roll and have a free drop, then you should drop if your opening move results in a negative equity. This is what happened today in my practice match with XG:





White is Player 2

score: 4
pip: 162
5 point match
pip: 167
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-CA--eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:00:4:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.17% (G:13.07% B:0.53%) 50.21% (G:13.48% B:0.53%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.83% (G:14.12% B:0.63%) 49.79% (G:14.42% B:0.66%)
Cubeless Equities +0.138 +0.947
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.871 (-0.076)
Double/Take:+0.947
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.053)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Does dead cube ownership mitigate the slightly negative equity of my opening move? Are there any guidelines which opening moves (if any) are drops? Does it depend on the actual match score?

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