Posting three rollout results below: (1) at the given score, (2) for money, and (3) at gammon go.
When this position came up in the match, I quickly pointed on my opponent and never really considered the alternative. My opponent fanned, I made my 5pt with 64 and I cruised on to win an easy gammon for the match. I was shocked and stunned when XG said my play was a whopper/cheese.
Blue leads by 27 pips before the shake. He leads in the EPC by maybe something like 22, more or less. Blue should be content with minimizing contact, trying to capitalize on his racing lead.
The problem with pointing on White is that Blue ends up leaving too many shots, especially if White enters with a 3.
I hope not too many people chose 6/4* 6/1.
        
 
           
 | | White is Thomas1959
score: 3
pip: 108 | | 7 point match | pip: 81
score: 5
Blue is peever |
| | XGID=-DB-a-Db-C-B-------ccbbb--:0:0:1:52:5:3:0:7:10 | | Blue to play 52 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 11/9 11/6 | eq: +0.695 | | Player:
Opponent: | 75.88% (G:3.68% B:0.05%)
24.12% (G:1.26% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.690...+0.701) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 36 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4* 6/4 | eq: +0.508 (-0.187) | | Player:
Opponent: | 67.93% (G:11.87% B:0.09%)
32.07% (G:4.10% B:0.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.502...+0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds |
| | 3. | Rollout1 | 9/4* 4/2 | eq: +0.232 (-0.463) | | Player:
Opponent: | 60.68% (G:6.00% B:0.06%)
39.32% (G:5.88% B:0.24%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.225...+0.240) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 11 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout1 | 11/9 6/1 | eq: -0.370 (-1.065) | | Player:
Opponent: | 44.49% (G:2.84% B:0.03%)
55.51% (G:11.06% B:0.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.378...-0.361) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 35 seconds |
| | 5. | Rollout1 | 11/4* | eq: -0.837 (-1.532) | | Player:
Opponent: | 43.66% (G:6.46% B:0.03%)
56.34% (G:20.25% B:0.88%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.844...-0.829) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 41 seconds |
| | 6. | Rollout1 | 6/1 6/4* | eq: -0.904 (-1.599) | | Player:
Opponent: | 40.63% (G:5.97% B:0.03%)
59.37% (G:18.67% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.914...-0.894) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds |
| | | 1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Thomas1959
score: 0
pip: 108 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 81
score: 0
Blue is peever |
| | XGID=-DB-a-Db-C-B-------ccbbb--:1:-1:1:52:0:0:1:0:10 | | Blue to play 52 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 11/9 11/6 | eq: +0.487 | | Player:
Opponent: | 75.97% (G:3.11% B:0.01%)
24.03% (G:1.35% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.482...+0.493) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 46 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4* 6/4 | eq: +0.357 (-0.130) | | Player:
Opponent: | 67.91% (G:11.52% B:0.04%)
32.09% (G:4.21% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.352...+0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds |
| | | 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
| | White is Thomas1959
score: 1
pip: 108 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 81
score: 0
Blue is peever |
| | XGID=-DB-a-Db-C-B-------ccbbb--:0:0:1:52:0:1:1:2:10 | | Blue to play 52 | | | 1. | Rollout1 | 9/4* 6/4 | eq: +0.588 | | Player:
Opponent: | 67.26% (G:12.13% B:0.09%)
32.74% (G:3.96% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.584...+0.591) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 11/9 11/6 | eq: +0.571 (-0.016) | | Player:
Opponent: | 75.91% (G:2.65% B:0.03%)
24.09% (G:1.07% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.568...+0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds |
| | | 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2