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BGonline.org Forums
Recube for match?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Recube for match? (neilkaz)
Date: Monday, 2 September 2013, at 12:20 a.m.
White's tp ats is just his mwc if he passes which is 30.5% using Neil's numbers (50% - 3 x 6.5%). Is it a take? I definately would take. White has several ways to become a favorite in this game: D6 or D5 to get both checkers out safely; hitting an outfield fly shot; hitting loose on the 4-point after Blue runs one checker off the 21-point and then covering it after Blue dances; winning the priming battle after Blue rolls the anti-joker D4; or even from a poorly-timed deucepoint game.
Should Blue redouble? The sequence of Blue rolling something that keeps both anchors intact followed by White not getting a 5 or 6 occurs 15% and looks like a market loser to me. D6,D5,D3, or 65 might lose the market depending on the strength of White's response. Another reason to spin the cube is that doing so negates all gammons. I think White wins more g's than Blue here so that's an incentive for Blue to redouble. If it goes R/T, Blue can play one checker off the 21-point without worrying about getting g'd for the match if one of his resulting blots gets hit and he dances too long.
R/T looks correct to me.
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