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OTB and RO

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 2 September 2013, at 3:14 p.m.

In Response To: Recube for match? (neilkaz)

OTB with my opp's position having checkers out of play and being fragile I felt that I could win this game about 63% at DMP noting that if plans to go forward failed, I'd often have a 14 game or timed ace pt game. I felt that about half my losses based on these game plans would be G's. Thus I slightly over estimated my DMP chances and G losses. I didn't really care much about my G's since I didn't see many scenarios to make me TG b4 cashing.

I knew my opp's TP was 30% and since b4 we started play, he thanked me for Neil's Numbers, I figured he did as well, thereby reducing my chances to get a really sick take from him later.

Clearly, there seem to be market losing sequences here and all though I felt that he had almost no chance to pass (having recubed me very aggressively as well) I spun the cube and now started a series of really sick dice for both sides. He made a slight error in play, and a couple rolls later was punished with a ruinous breaking 44 when I had two checkers on the bar after having been forced to break my 5 pt. I hit from the roof and soon won.

Looking at the RO results, I can see that I might have done better to not recube a player about 60 ELO weaker than me, although the game still has to be played out and I like keeping opps under pressure.

White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 102
9 point match
pip: 144
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.409% (G:18.390% B:1.034%) 62.136% (G:18.459% B:1.214%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.591% (G:16.341% B:4.643%) 37.864% (G:16.860% B:4.901%)
Cubeless Equities +0.3210 +0.6909
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.6706 (-0.0203)0.0070 (+0.6636..+0.6776)
Redouble/Take:+0.69090.0073 (+0.6836..+0.6982)
Redouble/Pass:+1.0000 (+0.3091)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 50 minutes 42 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.193.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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