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Cube action ATS?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Tuesday, 3 September 2013, at 2:59 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (Stick)

Pass -> 4a 2a -> 33%
Take win -> 2a 3a -> 60%
Take lose -> 4a 1a C -> 19%

risk = 33 - 19 = 14
gain = 60 - 33 = 27

risk/(risk+gain) = 14/(14+27) = 14/41 ~= 14/42 = 1/3

Of course, this is the raw take point. The cube vig is huge here since a recube to 4 is 100% efficient. Also, blonde doesn't get full value for gammons, while brown gets a lot of bang for a gammon as long as he doesn't re-cube. So I guess I see how this can be a take. I'd still take a shake and see about sending a third man back.

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