Robertie suggests not to bother fighting for the 5pt since the play is unlikely to succeed. But there are so many early game positions when you simply must fight for your 5pt even when you are an underdog. This position is one of those.
        
 
           
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 165 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--aaEBD--AcB---cae-----A:0:0:1:51:0:0:1:0:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/5* | eq: +0.389 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.28% (G:16.96% B:0.99%)
40.72% (G:10.39% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.381...+0.396) - [100.0%]
Duration: 29 minutes 47 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 11/6 | eq: +0.361 (-0.027) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.82% (G:16.47% B:0.84%)
41.18% (G:9.49% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.352...+0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 94782038
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Now a bonus question: what little changes in the OP would make chose a safer play? I will post the rollout tomorrow so as not to spoil the fun for those who would like to think about it.
Finally, the usual DMP, GS, and GG results.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 165 | | 1 point match | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--aaEBD--AcB---cae-----A:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/5* | eq: +0.170 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.52% (G:23.29% B:4.09%)
41.48% (G:11.63% B:1.42%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.167...+0.173) - [100.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 51 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 11/6 | eq: +0.150 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.52% (G:23.82% B:2.54%)
42.48% (G:9.33% B:0.95%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.148...+0.153) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37291974
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 165 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 138
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--aaEBD--AcB---cae-----A:0:0:1:51:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/5* | eq: -0.043 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 58.29% (G:23.56% B:3.92%)
41.71% (G:10.42% B:0.97%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.047...-0.039) - [100.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 11/6 | eq: -0.057 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.86% (G:24.58% B:2.71%)
42.14% (G:10.73% B:0.76%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.061...-0.053) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37291974
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 165 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--aaEBD--AcB---cae-----A:0:0:1:51:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/20 6/5* | eq: +0.518 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 60.63% (G:15.24% B:2.45%)
39.37% (G:11.21% B:1.53%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.514...+0.521) - [100.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/24 11/6 | eq: +0.464 (-0.053) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.00% (G:12.21% B:1.38%)
39.00% (G:7.85% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.461...+0.467) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 39 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37291974
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
It's NEVER right to choose the weenie play in this position, even at GS.