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BGonline.org Forums
TooMuchOnMyMind Squinted 41S-61P-32@-61
Posted By: HOMINID In Response To: TooMuchOnMyMind Squinted 41S-61P-32@-61 (Taper_Mike)
Date: Wednesday, 11 September 2013, at 2:51 p.m.
Is a half empty cup the same as a half full cup. Technically i suppose it is. A half empty cup has negative connotations as far as im concerned. When i start a match my cup is half full as is my opponents. Im happy about that and im looking to fill it to the top. Whats all that to do with this problem. Having negative thoughts hijacks proactive plays. The early openings is a good time to be proactive. As soon as i saw it i made my play and whacked it into xg2. That bot is coming on it agrees with me lol.BG life becomes much easier when you can understand how to calculate simple odds. If you can do simple multiplications and addition and subtraction get involved. Im not suggesting one does complicated calculations over the table. With the understanding of the odds over the table decisions become easier. My first thought on this position before the roll “no cube”. My opponent has a high anchor. My runners are not active yet but i have a 3 point prime. There is a 25% chance that if unhindered my opponent will make his 5 point or the bar point. Im not happy about that.I roll 6-1, and see two obvious plays immediately (24-23,13-7) and (24-18,6-5).The first is far to passive at this early stage but the second looks extremely dangerous and so it is. My experience confirms it as the best play. So where is the silver lining if hit on the 18 point. I don’t want the enemy to have an easy play on their side of the board so i give them the opportunity to play my side of the board. They have a high anchor i don’t. Theres a 31% chance my blot on the 5 point will be hit no sorry theres a 69% chance it will not be hit. Im unstacking making my 5 point and a 4 point prime maybe. If it is hit its the odds are good to make a high anchor or even the 18 point on re-entry . My blot on the 18 point is under serious threat a 70% chance of being hit which includes a 25% chance of hit and cover.This is not the time to worry about jokers they happen but the odds are against them. Of course there are other nuances but the clocks ticking. So how does one justify playing to the 18 point with the likelyhood of being hit. Theres a secret when theres a blot on the 18 point a man on the bar and runners to play its likely that the 18 point will be hit on re-entry. Very often a slugfest ensues especially when both 7 points are open to threat. Theres plenty of play here and maybe a bonus for me, a three point prime can be an obstacle for three runners or a high anchor for me. Its the odds that does it. Work out the odds and become a believer. You will be surprised how high they are. I find it irritating when people post their preferred play not backed up with any explanation right or wrong. Who cares what they think whether they be world class or otherwise its no help to man nor beast. Maybe im wrong but i don’t mind leaving blots on the opponents 7 point cos i know how easy it can be to hit them if you have a man on the bar runners available and easy entry.
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