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Responding to Daniel Murphy

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Saturday, 21 September 2013, at 1:48 p.m.

In Response To: What Are The "Normal Match Scores?" (Daniel Murphy)

Daniel wrote, "I can find it used back in 1999. A number of respected writers all seem to know what it means. Have you asked them?"

I believe that some, if not most, of these respected writers read this column. For whatever reason, they have chosen not to respond. Check out my post entitled, "Responding to CMC."

Are -8/-8 and -9/-9 normal match scores? Check out the rollout results posted below, where the same simple race is a pass at -8/-8 but a take at -9/-9.

Cube action and checker play in matches are a lot more complicated than the NMS folks would have us believe.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 64
9 point match
pip: 57
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BCCD-----------adccb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:9:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.553 +1.100
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.824 (-0.143)±0.002 (+0.821..+0.826)
Double/Take:+0.966±0.004 (+0.963..+0.970)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.034)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 26.2 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 64
8 point match
pip: 57
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---BCCD-----------adccb---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:8:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 77.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 22.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.553 +1.171
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.839 (-0.161)±0.003 (+0.836..+0.841)
Double/Take:+1.028 (+0.028)±0.004 (+1.024..+1.032)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 20.6 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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