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501 Essential Backgammon Problems #128 -- Rollout +Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 9 October 2013, at 3:34 a.m.

In Response To: 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #128 (Igor)

Extra gammon wins make the hit correct. Very tough play to figure out.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---aDAC---fC---bBd-b----:0:0:1:61:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +0.455
Player:
Opponent:
59.06% (G:19.36% B:0.21%)
40.94% (G:6.84% B:0.31%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.450...+0.460) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.442 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:
61.28% (G:15.60% B:0.18%)
38.72% (G:6.07% B:0.26%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.437...+0.446) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38 minutes 39 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 92893372
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

It's also crystal clear what the best play is at each of the three key match scores.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
1 point match
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---aDAC---fC---bBd-b----:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.228
Player:
Opponent:
61.42% (G:15.42% B:0.38%)
38.58% (G:5.69% B:0.32%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.224...+0.233) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +0.181 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
59.06% (G:18.66% B:0.21%)
40.94% (G:6.99% B:0.53%)
Conf.: 0.004 (+0.177...+0.185) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12309939
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 146
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---aDAC---fC---bBd-b----:0:0:1:61:0:1:1:2:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +0.582
Player:
Opponent:
59.00% (G:20.10% B:0.31%)
41.00% (G:8.10% B:0.71%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.575...+0.589) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.486 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:
62.88% (G:11.44% B:0.31%)
37.12% (G:4.55% B:0.29%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.481...+0.492) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12309939
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146
2 point match
Crawford
pip: 132
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---aDAC---fC---bBd-b----:0:0:1:61:1:0:1:2:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.099
Player:
Opponent:
61.96% (G:17.44% B:0.35%)
38.04% (G:7.01% B:0.41%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.093...+0.105) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +0.024 (-0.075)
Player:
Opponent:
59.97% (G:21.77% B:0.41%)
40.03% (G:8.77% B:0.52%)
Conf.: 0.006 (+0.018...+0.030) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 12309939
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Going back to the original unlimited games position, bringing one more white checker down makes the safe play come out ahead.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---aDAC---eC---cBd-b----:0:0:1:61:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout113/7 8/7eq: +0.304
Player:
Opponent:
58.08% (G:10.83% B:0.12%)
41.92% (G:5.45% B:0.22%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.299...+0.309) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 06 seconds
2.Rollout113/7 6/5* eq: +0.280 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:
55.58% (G:16.67% B:0.19%)
44.42% (G:7.63% B:0.35%)
Conf.: 0.007 (+0.273...+0.287) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 01 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 48613556
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

More variants to follow playing around with the position of two home board points.

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