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5-3-2 Backgame - Rollouts

Posted By: Michael Petch
Date: Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 4:23 p.m.

In Response To: 5-3-2 Backgame (Stick)

I would have dropped the cube had I been offered it, but I I thought the take was less bad than the bot suggested. Both the bots agree on the outcome. The position is actually too good to double/drop. I felt it was probably Double/drop. I was actually more surprised that the position was as good as it was.

Your comment about getting an opponent to take was also what was on my mind. I actually had a preference to play this out, and my opponent obliged by taking this cube.

XG Rollout ad this to say:

		White is uffa score: 6 pip: 82 11 point match pip: 211 score: 2 Blue is mpetch
XGID=----BBB-a------AAbbbCeBBc-:1:1:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68.49% (G:19.90% B:1.06%)	69.76% (G:21.17% B:1.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.51% (G:19.87% B:1.81%)	30.24% (G:19.67% B:6.32%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.417	+1.516
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+1.033	±0.011 (+1.022..+1.044)
Redouble/Take:	+1.509 (+0.476)	±0.028 (+1.481..+1.537)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (-0.033)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 44657072 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

GNUBG saw it pretty much the same way:

Move number 50: mpetch on roll, cube decision?

opponent	82
mpetch	211
Position ID: x2cbQADYBlA4Gw Match ID: UQlgAWAAEAAE

• mpetch doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.031)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.372	(Money: +0.288)
Cubeful equities:
1.	No double	+1.031
2.	Double, take	+1.519	+0.488
3.	Double, pass	+1.000	-0.031
Proper cube action:		Too good to redouble, pass (5.9%)
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player mpetch owns 2-cube 0.665 0.185 0.005 - 0.335 0.212 0.020 +0.372 +1.031 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.005 Player opponent owns 4-cube 0.701 0.210 0.011 - 0.299 0.202 0.056 +1.528 +1.519 Standard error 0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.015 0.015
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 725987613 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• 5-3-2 Backgame
  Michael Petch -- Friday, 25 October 2013, at 6:04 a.m.
  • 5-3-2 Backgame
    Casper Van der Tak -- Friday, 25 October 2013, at 7:41 a.m.
  • 5-3-2 Backgame
    Keene -- Friday, 25 October 2013, at 3:25 p.m.
  • 5-3-2 Backgame
    Frank Berger -- Friday, 25 October 2013, at 3:43 p.m.
  • 5-3-2 Backgame
    happyjuggler0 -- Friday, 25 October 2013, at 5:02 p.m.
  • 5-3-2 Backgame
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 12:11 a.m.
    • 5-3-2 Backgame
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 2:34 a.m.
      • 5-3-2 Backgame
        Stick -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 10:00 a.m.
        • 5-3-2 Backgame
          neilkaz -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 3:08 p.m.
  • 5-3-2 Backgame
    Michael Petch -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 1:55 p.m.
    • 5-3-2 Backgame
      Stick -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 3:27 p.m.
      • 5-3-2 Backgame - Rollouts
        Michael Petch -- Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 4:23 p.m.
  • 5-3-2 Backgame
    ah_clem -- Monday, 28 October 2013, at 1:58 p.m.