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5-3-2 Backgame - Rollouts

Posted By: Michael Petch
Date: Saturday, 26 October 2013, at 4:23 p.m.

In Response To: 5-3-2 Backgame (Stick)

I would have dropped the cube had I been offered it, but I I thought the take was less bad than the bot suggested. Both the bots agree on the outcome. The position is actually too good to double/drop. I felt it was probably Double/drop. I was actually more surprised that the position was as good as it was.

Your comment about getting an opponent to take was also what was on my mind. I actually had a preference to play this out, and my opponent obliged by taking this cube.

XG Rollout ad this to say:





White is uffa

score: 6
pip: 82
11 point match
pip: 211
score: 2

Blue is mpetch
XGID=----BBB-a------AAbbbCeBBc-:1:1:1:00:2:6:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.49% (G:19.90% B:1.06%) 69.76% (G:21.17% B:1.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.51% (G:19.87% B:1.81%) 30.24% (G:19.67% B:6.32%)
Cubeless Equities +0.417 +1.516
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.0330.011 (+1.022..+1.044)
Redouble/Take:+1.509 (+0.476)0.028 (+1.481..+1.537)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.033)
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.6%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44657072
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 25 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

GNUBG saw it pretty much the same way:

Move number 50: mpetch on roll, cube decision?

opponent82

3X2O2O5X3O2X2X2X1O1O ' '

 ' ' '2O2O2O '1X ' ' ' '
mpetch211
Position ID: x2cbQADYBlA4Gw Match ID: UQlgAWAAEAAE

mpetch doubles

Alert: wrong double ( -0.031)!

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity +0.372(Money: +0.288)
Cubeful equities:
1.No double +1.031
2.Double, take +1.519 +0.488
3.Double, pass +1.000 -0.031
Proper cube action:Too good to redouble, pass (5.9%)
Rollout details
WinW gW bg LoseL gL bgCubelessCubeful
Player mpetch owns 2-cube0.6650.1850.005-0.3350.2120.020 +0.372 +1.031
Standard error0.0010.0010.000-0.0010.0010.002 0.004 0.005
Player opponent owns 4-cube0.7010.2100.011-0.2990.2020.056 +1.528 +1.519
Standard error0.0020.0030.001-0.0020.0030.004 0.015 0.015
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 725987613 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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