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501 Essential Backgammon Problems #252 -- Rollout + Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Thursday, 7 November 2013, at 7:37 p.m.

In Response To: 501 Essential Backgammon Problems #252 (Igor)

Robertie explains why 8/2 6/2 is a wrong idea -- blue needs his 5 point, not the 2 point. His suggested move is 13/9 13/7, but blue does not have enough timing to squat on the ace point in this priming battle.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 138 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BB-CBB----Bb--bbe-b--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout124/20 13/7eq: +0.169
 Player:Opponent: 55.33% (G:20.35% B:2.01%)44.67% (G:17.14% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.163...+0.176) - [100.0%]Duration: 19 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: +0.148 (-0.022)
 Player:Opponent: 53.37% (G:18.80% B:1.65%)46.63% (G:13.25% B:0.77%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.142...+0.154) - [0.0%]Duration: 17 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout28/2 6/2eq: +0.060 (-0.109)
 Player:Opponent: 51.18% (G:18.56% B:1.49%)48.82% (G:15.28% B:0.96%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.046...+0.074) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13140766
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13140766
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Give blue just a tad more timing and 13/9 13/7 is the right move.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BB-CBB----Bb--bbc-bb-B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: -0.142
 Player:Opponent: 46.10% (G:16.03% B:1.45%)53.90% (G:16.56% B:1.08%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.156...-0.127) - [100.0%]Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds
2.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.255 (-0.113)
 Player:Opponent: 43.54% (G:14.41% B:1.01%)56.46% (G:18.45% B:1.36%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.269...-0.241) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 minute 57 seconds
3.Rollout124/20 13/7eq: -0.347 (-0.205)
 Player:Opponent: 44.36% (G:14.53% B:1.33%)55.64% (G:25.15% B:1.29%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.361...-0.333) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32599260
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

More variants:

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BB-CBB----Bb--bbd-c--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: +0.156
 Player:Opponent: 53.71% (G:18.73% B:1.73%)46.29% (G:13.49% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.145...+0.167) - [100.0%]Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
2.Rollout124/20 13/7eq: +0.122 (-0.034)
 Player:Opponent: 54.91% (G:19.23% B:1.68%)45.09% (G:17.98% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.110...+0.134) - [0.0%]Duration: 4 minutes 55 seconds
3.Rollout28/2 6/2eq: +0.012 (-0.144)
 Player:Opponent: 50.50% (G:17.96% B:1.46%)49.50% (G:15.96% B:1.04%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.004...+0.027) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32599260
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32599260
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 139 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BB-CBB----Bb--bcd-b--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout124/20 13/7eq: -0.041
 Player:Opponent: 50.22% (G:18.50% B:1.65%)49.78% (G:17.82% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.058...-0.024) - [100.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: -0.100 (-0.058)
 Player:Opponent: 47.32% (G:16.44% B:1.29%)52.68% (G:15.12% B:0.88%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.114...-0.085) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.174 (-0.132)
 Player:Opponent: 45.46% (G:16.12% B:1.28%)54.54% (G:17.56% B:1.23%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.188...-0.159) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 29 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32599260
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 141 Unlimited GameJacoby pip: 136 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b-BB-CBB----Bb--ccc-b--B-:0:0:1:64:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 64

1.Rollout124/20 13/7eq: -0.089
 Player:Opponent: 48.08% (G:17.98% B:1.41%)51.92% (G:16.71% B:0.89%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.104...-0.074) - [100.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/7eq: -0.234 (-0.146)
 Player:Opponent: 43.80% (G:15.56% B:1.26%)56.20% (G:15.94% B:0.94%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.250...-0.219) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 22 seconds
3.Rollout18/2 6/2eq: -0.284 (-0.195)
 Player:Opponent: 42.45% (G:14.85% B:1.17%)57.55% (G:18.20% B:1.18%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.302...-0.266) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32599260
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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