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UBK vs. Leifer — AtS, UG & DMP — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Monday, 11 November 2013, at 8:57 a.m.

In Response To: UBK vs. Leifer — Late in the match (Taper_Mike)

		White is Player 2 score: 9 pip: 110 11 point match pip: 91 score: 6 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCaBBA-A--bA----ce-b-b-A:1:-1:1:12:6:9:0:11:10
Blue to play 12

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/4*	eq: -0.0451
	Player: Opponent: 41.01% (G:9.70% B:0.05%) 58.99% (G:22.90% B:3.96%) Conf.: ±0.0021 (-0.0472...-0.0430) - [100.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 23 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 9/7	eq: -0.0986 (-0.0535)
	Player: Opponent: 41.31% (G:5.37% B:0.06%) 58.69% (G:6.82% B:0.31%) Conf.: ±0.0019 (-0.1005...-0.0967) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75207459 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

When All You Have Is Bananas...

After looking at this for a short time, and considering both plays, Bob Koca quite correctly made the “bananas split” play. It may seem obvious looking at it from the comfort of your home, but with the match on the line, Bob found this play under pressure.

Alas, one of his blots was hit, and Mel Leifer went on to win the game and match.

 

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 110 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 91 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCaBBA-A--bA----ce-b-b-A:1:-1:1:12:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 12

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 9/7	eq: -0.4188
	Player: Opponent: 41.55% (G:6.11% B:0.09%) 58.45% (G:8.19% B:0.29%) Conf.: ±0.0033 (-0.4221...-0.4156) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/4*	eq: -0.5415 (-0.1227)
	Player: Opponent: 41.27% (G:10.87% B:0.11%) 58.73% (G:29.58% B:5.38%) Conf.: ±0.0036 (-0.5451...-0.5378) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 58 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75207459 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Score Does Matter

Casper nailed this. In unlimited games, where you do not have the luxury of ignoring gammon losses, the orthodox 9/7 is correct.

So, what do you think is best at DMP?

(The answer is below, so make your choice before scrolling down.)

 

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 110 1 point match pip: 91 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCaBBA-A--bA----ce-b-b-A:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:1:10
Blue to play 12

1.	Rollout1	Bar/24 6/4*	eq: -0.1812
	Player: Opponent: 40.94% (G:7.87% B:0.03%) 59.06% (G:26.83% B:4.66%) Conf.: ±0.0006 (-0.1818...-0.1806) - [99.5%] Duration: 1 hour 04 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/24 9/7	eq: -0.1823 (-0.0011)
	Player: Opponent: 40.88% (G:6.14% B:0.05%) 59.12% (G:6.86% B:0.25%) Conf.: ±0.0006 (-0.1829...-0.1818) - [0.5%] Duration: 51 minutes 56 seconds
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 75207459 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Double Match Point

When you consider that Bob’s original position is akin to gammon-go (with a 10% chance to win a double game), it should not be a surprise that the DMP rollout splits the difference between that and the UG result above.

Knowing that the two candidates are tied, however, is something else altogether.

Mike

 

Messages In This Thread

• UBK vs. Leifer — Late in the match
  Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 10 November 2013, at 3:14 a.m.
  • UBK vs. Leifer — Late in the match
    Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 10 November 2013, at 4:30 a.m.
  • UBK vs. Leifer — AtS, UG & DMP — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 11 November 2013, at 8:57 a.m.
    • UBK vs. Leifer — AtS, UG & DMP — 3-ply XG2 Rollouts
      Bob Koca -- Monday, 11 November 2013, at 12:32 p.m.