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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 11 November 2013, at 3:50 p.m.

In Response To: Four Checker Plays (Paul Weaver)

The diagram on the right shows the position after the best play.

Position 1.

White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 165 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 109 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=bABbBBB-B-B-a-A-ba-bbab-A-:2:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 65 1. Rollout1 24/18 6/1 eq: +1.143 Player: Opponent: 77.80% (G:66.50% B:6.29%) 22.20% (G:5.01% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.035 (+1.108...+1.178) - [95.4%] Duration: 18.1 seconds 2. Rollout2 24/18 10/5 eq: +1.098 (-0.045) Player: Opponent: 76.78% (G:63.70% B:6.72%) 23.22% (G:4.11% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.039 (+1.059...+1.138) - [4.6%] Duration: 17.7 seconds 3. Rollout2 10/5 10/4 eq: +1.051 (-0.092) Player: Opponent: 75.39% (G:63.15% B:8.45%) 24.61% (G:4.60% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.044 (+1.007...+1.095) - [0.0%] Duration: 17.7 seconds 1 67 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 69 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

After 24/18 6/1, Blue can (almost always) lift the blot if he does not cover it. If Blue is hit with a 6 other than 66, he has lots of return shots. If Blue is missed, he is on the G/BG trail. White is NevzatDogan score: 0 pip: 165 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 98 score: 0 Blue is peever XGID=bBBbBBA-B-B-a-A-baAbbab---:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action? eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2.

White is White score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 Blue is Blue XGID=----B-CbC-A-bD---ccd---Ba-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 41 1. Rollout1 13/9 6/5 eq: -0.407 Player: Opponent: 39.47% (G:9.16% B:0.32%) 60.53% (G:11.82% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.421...-0.393) - [99.7%] Duration: 8 minutes 54 seconds 2. Rollout1 13/9 10/9 eq: -0.438 (-0.031) Player: Opponent: 38.34% (G:8.67% B:0.31%) 61.66% (G:11.24% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.454...-0.422) - [0.2%] Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds 3. Rollout1 10/5 eq: -0.445 (-0.038) Player: Opponent: 38.20% (G:8.66% B:0.31%) 61.80% (G:11.09% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.459...-0.432) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 19 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The best play slots the 5pt, leaving Blue with a lot of covers if hit or missed. Blue has an anchor while White has a blot, so Blue will usually get lots of return shots if hit. Note the duplication of White's 2s and 3s. Many of them (14/20) make a point in White's board: 21 32 42 22 31 43 53 33. White is White score: 0 pip: 132 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 153 score: 0 Blue is Blue XGID=----BABbCAA-bC---ccd---Ba-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action? eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3.

White is White score: 0 pip: 120 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Blue XGID=----ABC-Da-AdB-a-A-e-b-bA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 32 1. Rollout1 17/15* 11/8 eq: -0.018 Player: Opponent: 45.74% (G:14.56% B:0.68%) 54.26% (G:25.16% B:1.40%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.029...-0.007) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 44 seconds 2. Rollout1 17/15* 8/5 eq: -0.065 (-0.047) Player: Opponent: 45.05% (G:14.90% B:0.68%) 54.95% (G:28.28% B:2.93%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.075...-0.055) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds 3. Rollout1 17/14 11/9* eq: -0.087 (-0.069) Player: Opponent: 44.90% (G:12.12% B:0.55%) 55.10% (G:26.66% B:2.42%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.098...-0.077) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds 4. Rollout1 11/9* 9/6 eq: -0.090 (-0.072) Player: Opponent: 43.56% (G:12.61% B:0.49%) 56.44% (G:24.69% B:1.47%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.099...-0.081) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds 5. Rollout1 11/9* 8/5 eq: -0.096 (-0.078) Player: Opponent: 44.26% (G:13.16% B:0.53%) 55.74% (G:27.02% B:2.50%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.106...-0.087) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Blue should hit to pick up the pips in the race. Hitting on the 15pt gives Blue a great chance to also pick up the 9pt blot if Blue misses. The best play leaves lots of returns, but White has an ugly offensive position, giving Blue a lot of counter play if White hits. White is White score: 0 pip: 135 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 Blue is Blue XGID=a---ABC-Ea--dB-A---e-b-bA-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action? eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4.

White is White score: 0 pip: 121 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Blue XGID=---aABC-DA--dBAa---d-b-baA:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 53 1. Rollout1 Bar/22 14/9 eq: +0.222 Player: Opponent: 53.37% (G:15.16% B:0.83%) 46.63% (G:19.66% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.213...+0.231) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds 2. Rollout1 Bar/22 9/4 eq: +0.171 (-0.051) Player: Opponent: 50.33% (G:16.36% B:0.87%) 49.67% (G:17.64% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.162...+0.181) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds 1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The reflex play (which I made) is to cover the 4pt. However, this move leaves 2s for White to hit and 6s to escape. Covering the 9pt gives Blue many attacking/priming numbers next turn if missed. Blue usually gets lots of return if hit. White is White score: 0 pip: 121 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 130 score: 0 Blue is Blue XGID=---aABC-DB--dB-a---d-bAba-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action? eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Four Checker Plays
  Paul Weaver -- Sunday, 10 November 2013, at 5:48 p.m.
  • Rollout Results Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 11 November 2013, at 3:50 p.m.
    • Rollout Results Posted
      Stick -- Monday, 11 November 2013, at 7:53 p.m.
  • Four Checker Plays
    Keene -- Monday, 11 November 2013, at 4:30 p.m.
    • Responding to Keene
      Paul Weaver -- Monday, 11 November 2013, at 10:19 p.m.