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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 11 November 2013, at 3:50 p.m.

In Response To: Four Checker Plays (Paul Weaver)

The diagram on the right shows the position after the best play.

Position 1.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=bABbBBB-B-B-a-A-ba-bbab-A-:2:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 65

1.Rollout124/18 6/1eq: +1.143
Player:
Opponent:
77.80% (G:66.50% B:6.29%)
22.20% (G:5.01% B:0.36%)
Conf.: 0.035 (+1.108...+1.178) - [95.4%]
Duration: 18.1 seconds
2.Rollout224/18 10/5eq: +1.098 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
76.78% (G:63.70% B:6.72%)
23.22% (G:4.11% B:0.36%)
Conf.: 0.039 (+1.059...+1.138) - [4.6%]
Duration: 17.7 seconds
3.Rollout210/5 10/4eq: +1.051 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:
75.39% (G:63.15% B:8.45%)
24.61% (G:4.60% B:0.24%)
Conf.: 0.044 (+1.007...+1.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17.7 seconds
1 67 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 69 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

After 24/18 6/1, Blue can (almost always) lift the blot if he does not cover it. If Blue is hit with a 6 other than 66, he has lots of return shots. If Blue is missed, he is on the G/BG trail.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 165
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 98
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=bBBbBBA-B-B-a-A-baAbbab---:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2.





White is White

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Blue
XGID=----B-CbC-A-bD---ccd---Ba-:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.407
Player:
Opponent:
39.47% (G:9.16% B:0.32%)
60.53% (G:11.82% B:0.45%)
Conf.: 0.014 (-0.421...-0.393) - [99.7%]
Duration: 8 minutes 54 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 10/9eq: -0.438 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
38.34% (G:8.67% B:0.31%)
61.66% (G:11.24% B:0.41%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.454...-0.422) - [0.2%]
Duration: 8 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout110/5eq: -0.445 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
38.20% (G:8.66% B:0.31%)
61.80% (G:11.09% B:0.38%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.459...-0.432) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The best play slots the 5pt, leaving Blue with a lot of covers if hit or missed. Blue has an anchor while White has a blot, so Blue will usually get lots of return shots if hit. Note the duplication of White's 2s and 3s. Many of them (14/20) make a point in White's board: 21 32 42 22 31 43 53 33.





White is White

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Blue
XGID=----BABbCAA-bC---ccd---Ba-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 3.





White is White

score: 0
pip: 120
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Blue
XGID=----ABC-Da-AdB-a-A-e-b-bA-:1:1:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout117/15* 11/8eq: -0.018
Player:
Opponent:
45.74% (G:14.56% B:0.68%)
54.26% (G:25.16% B:1.40%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.029...-0.007) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 44 seconds
2.Rollout117/15* 8/5eq: -0.065 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
45.05% (G:14.90% B:0.68%)
54.95% (G:28.28% B:2.93%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.075...-0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout117/14 11/9* eq: -0.087 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
44.90% (G:12.12% B:0.55%)
55.10% (G:26.66% B:2.42%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.098...-0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 46 seconds
4.Rollout111/9* 9/6eq: -0.090 (-0.072)
Player:
Opponent:
43.56% (G:12.61% B:0.49%)
56.44% (G:24.69% B:1.47%)
Conf.: 0.009 (-0.099...-0.081) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 26 seconds
5.Rollout111/9* 8/5eq: -0.096 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
44.26% (G:13.16% B:0.53%)
55.74% (G:27.02% B:2.50%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.106...-0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 19 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Blue should hit to pick up the pips in the race. Hitting on the 15pt gives Blue a great chance to also pick up the 9pt blot if Blue misses. The best play leaves lots of returns, but White has an ugly offensive position, giving Blue a lot of counter play if White hits.





White is White

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 137
score: 0

Blue is Blue
XGID=a---ABC-Ea--dB-A---e-b-bA-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4.





White is White

score: 0
pip: 121
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Blue
XGID=---aABC-DA--dBAa---d-b-baA:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout1Bar/22 14/9eq: +0.222
Player:
Opponent:
53.37% (G:15.16% B:0.83%)
46.63% (G:19.66% B:0.29%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.213...+0.231) - [100.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 41 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 9/4eq: +0.171 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
50.33% (G:16.36% B:0.87%)
49.67% (G:17.64% B:0.30%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.162...+0.181) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

The reflex play (which I made) is to cover the 4pt. However, this move leaves 2s for White to hit and 6s to escape. Covering the 9pt gives Blue many attacking/priming numbers next turn if missed. Blue usually gets lots of return if hit.





White is White

score: 0
pip: 121
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 130
score: 0

Blue is Blue
XGID=---aABC-DB--dB-a---d-bAba-:1:1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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