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EPC: calculate win%?

Posted By: PINO
Date: Wednesday, 4 December 2013, at 1:47 p.m.

In Response To: EPC: calculate win%? (Bob Koca)

The table gives you the value of one pip difference given the length of the race (as measured by the potential doubler. His winning prob = 0.5 + parameter * (EPC doublee - EPC doubler +4.1). The parameter decreases in value the longer the race. If I had to redo the exercie and do the necessary series of linearisations (which we know aren't linear), I'd do them around 70 or 75%.

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